Canada's Ero Copper misses Q3 revenue estimates, reaffirms 2025 production and capex forecast

Overview

• Ero Copper Q3 revenue missed analyst expectations, adjusted EBITDA also missed

• Record copper production of 16,664 tonnes in Q3 2025 at $2.00/lb cash cost

• Net income for Q3 was $36.0 mln, reflecting strong financial performance

Outlook

• Ero Copper maintains full-year copper production guidance at 67,500 to 80,000 tonnes

• Company expects Q4 2025 to be the strongest production quarter of the year

• Tucumã Operation's C1 cash costs revised to $1.35-$1.55 per pound

Result Drivers

• RECORD COPPER PRODUCTION - Consolidated copper production reached a record 16,664 tonnes, driven by higher output at Tucumã and consistent production at Caraíba

• TUCUMÃ PRODUCTION INCREASE - Tucumã Operation increased copper production by 19% quarter-on-quarter due to improved plant throughput

• GOLD PRODUCTION GROWTH - Xavantina's gold production rose 17% quarter-on-quarter, aided by mechanized mining transition

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 8 "strong buy" or "buy", 6 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the specialty mining & metals peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Ero Copper Corp is C$32.50, about 10.8% above its November 3 closing price of C$28.99

• The stock recently traded at 7 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 5 three months ago

Press Release: ID:nGNXqg2B9

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