US natural gas futures dip 2% as output hits record highs

ReutersNov 4, 2025 3:24 PM

Gas output hits record highs, storage levels above average
Waha Hub prices fall into negative territory due to pipeline work
Mild weather forecast limits heating demand through mid-November
Record LNG export flows drive demand

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Tuesday on rising output this month, forecasts for mild weather that should keep heating demand lower than normal through mid-November and ample amounts of fuel in storage.

The price decline occurred despite record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 7.5 cents, or 1.8%, to $4.191 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:51 a.m. EST (1351 GMT). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest price since March 11.

Despite the small price decline, the front-month remained in technically overbought territory for a fourth consecutive day for the first time since early October.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory for the first time in three weeks as pipeline work trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

That was the 23rd time Waha prices have dropped below zero so far this year and compares with an average of $1.35 per mmBtu in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023).

Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop from a daily record high of 109.5 bcfd on Monday to 108.0 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 19, which should limit heating demand.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 108.6 bcfd this week to 117.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.4 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.

	Week ended Oct 31 Actual	Week ended Oct 24 Actual	Year ago Oct 31	Five-year average Oct 31
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+37	+74	+68	+42
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,919	3,882	3,921	3,753
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.4%	+4.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.21	4.27	2.98	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.81	10.72	13.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.15	11.00	14.12	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	238	227	176	249	251
U.S. GFS CDDs	16	17	32	17	13
U.S. GFS TDDs	254	244	208	266	264

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.6	108.9	108.9	101.3	99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.6	8.0	7.9	N/A	8.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	115.2	116.8	116.7	N/A	107.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.2	2.7	2.8	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.1	6.6	N/A	5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.8	17.7	17.7	12.8	12.2
U.S. Commercial	8.6	9.2	11.7	7.9	11.0
U.S. Residential	11.5	12.6	17.6	10.4	15.7
U.S. Power Plant	32.4	29.1	29.6	34.5	30.0
U.S. Industrial	23.4	23.5	24.1	22.7	24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.2	2.4	2.2	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	83.7	82.1	90.9	83.1	89.7
Total U.S. Demand	109.2	108.6	117.9	N/A	110.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	96	96	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	91	91	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	91	92	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Nov 7	Week ended Oct 31	2024	2023	2022
Wind	14	12	11	10	11
Solar	7	6	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	36	40	42	41	38
Coal	16	16	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	19	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.37	3.57	2.10	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.80	3.01	1.99	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.75	3.13	3.29	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.74	2.92	1.83	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.02	3.02	1.98	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.11	3.15	2.70	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.68	3.26	2.55	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.25	0.80	0.33	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.44	1.37	0.98	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	43.20	44.73	44.71	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	54.53	59.86	35.99	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	40.80	44.94	37.13	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	39.36	41.78	29.23	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	36.73	32.05	30.01	31.30	58.87

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