TotalEnergies sees oil demand rising until 2040 as energy security outweighs climate concerns

By America Hernandez

PARIS, Nov 4 - French oil major TotalEnergies TTEF.PA sees global oil demand rising through 2040 before gradually dropping off, as political fragmentation and energy security concerns dampen the drive to reduce emissions and limit global warming, it said in its annual energy outlook report on Tuesday.

The analysis represents an increase compared to last year, reflecting changes including U.S. President Donald Trump's partial rollback of green subsidies and resumption of liquefied natural gas plant licences, as well as lagging electric vehicle sales and ongoing coal plant installations in Asia.

The annual report presented three scenarios: current trends, a moderately ambitious “momentum” scenario, and a “rupture” scenario aligned to the Paris Agreement.

“We can present this rupture scenario, but given the level of political fragmentation, the probability of its success is diminishing, even out of reach, because the international coordination required is not what we see today,” said TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne at a press briefing.