FACTBOX-Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices to reach $4,500/Oz by mid-2026
Oct 31 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley said on Friday that gold prices had potential to climb to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, citing strong physical demand by exchange-traded funds and central banks as the economic outlook remains uncertain.
"Recent price action took gold well into 'overbought' territory on an RSI (Relative Strength Index) basis, but the recent correction has taken it to a healthier level, likely cleaning up positioning," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
The bank expects continued buying of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as interest rates decline, alongside steady purchases by central banks, albeit at a slower pace and stabilization in jewelry demand.
However, Morgan Stanley cautioned that downside risks remain, including potential price volatility that could prompt investors to shift toward other asset classes or decisions by central banks to reduce gold reserves.
Gold prices have surged over 54% year-to-date, hitting multiple record highs in 2025, including the latest peak of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, but have retreated more than 8% since then.
The rally in gold this year has been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of rate cuts, central bank purchases, and strong gold-backed ETF inflows.
Following is a list of analysts' latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agency | Annual Price Forecasts | Price Targets | Forecast as of | |
| 2025 | 2026 |
|
|
Morgan Stanley | $3,398 | $4,400 | $4,500 by mid 2026 | October 31 |
Citi Research | $3,400 | $3,250 | Lowers 0-3 month price target to $3,800 | October 28, 2025 |
JP Morgan | $3,468 | $4,753 | Expects prices reaching an average of $5,055/oz by 4Q26 | October 23, 2025 |
HSBC | $3,455 | $4,600 | $4,600 per ounce by year-end 2025 | October 17, 2025 |
ANZ | $3,494 | $4,445 | $4,400 by year-end and $4,600 by June 2026 | October 16, 2025 |
Bank of America | $3,352 | $4,438 | 2026 gold outlook raised to $5,000 | October 13, 2025 |
Societe Generale | $3,455 | $4,716 | $5,000 by the end of 2026 | October 13, 2025 |
Standard Chartered | $3,402 | $4,488 | - | October 13, 2025 |
Goldman Sachs | $3,400 | $4,525 | $4,900 by December 2026 | October 7, 2025 |
Commerzbank* | $4,000 | - | $4,200 by the end of next year | October 7, 2025 |
Deutsche Bank | $3,291 | $4,000 | $4,300 by Q4-2026 | September 17, 2025 |
UBS | $3,320
| $3,825 | Decline in real rates, potentially into negative territory, could push gold towards $4,700 | October 16, 2025 |
*end-of-period forecasts
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