US natgas prices jump 4% to 6-month high as record LNG export flows boost demand

ReutersOct 31, 2025 1:44 PM

Near-record LNG export flows boost demand
Lower 48 states see drop in gas output
Oil-to-gas ratio hits lowest since Dec 2022
Gas storage levels about 4% above normal, easing supply concerns

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a six-month high on Friday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, an output drop so far this month and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 16.0 cents, or 4.0%, to $4.116 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:12 a.m. EDT (1312 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 3.

That price increase kept the contract in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time in four weeks.

For the week, the front-month was up about 25% after gaining 10% last week. That 25% gain would be its biggest weekly percentage gain since the contract rose by a record weekly percentage gain of around 33% in April 2024.

For the month, the contract was also up about 25% after gaining 10% last month. That 25% gain would be its biggest monthly percentage gain since March.

Those increases in U.S. gas futures, coupled with a roughly 12% drop in crude futures CLc1 over the past three months, cut the oil-to-gas ratio, or the level where oil trades compared with gas, to 15-to-1, the lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas.

So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 19 times over gas. That compares with 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019-2023).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.5 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 15, which should keep heating demand lower than usual for this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 108.9 bcfd this week and next before rising to 109.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.6 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to 17.9 bcfd on Friday, which would top the current record of 17.3 bcfd on October 25.

	Week ended Oct 31 Actual	Week ended Oct 24 Actual	Year ago Oct 31	Five-year average Oct 31
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+37	+74	+68	+42
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,919	3,882	3,921	3,753
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.4%	+4.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.08	3.96	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.48	10.54	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.22	11.15	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	200	202	134	212	231
U.S. GFS CDDs	18	17	49	23	16
U.S. GFS TDDs	218	219	183	235	247

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.0	107.6	107.4	102.8	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.5	7.7	7.4	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.5	115.2	114.8	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.1	2.2	2.3	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.7	6.4	6.5	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.9	16.8	17.9	13.1	11.3
U.S. Commercial	6.8	8.6	9.2	7.3	6.9
U.S. Residential	7.7	11.4	12.5	9.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	31.5	32.3	29.5	34.0	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.8	23.4	23.5	22.6	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.2	2.2	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	76.2	83.4	82.3	80.4	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	101.9	108.8	109.0	N/A	95.9

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	90	89	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	91	89	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 24	Week ended Oct 17	2024	2023	2022
Wind	12	14	11	10	11
Solar	6	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	41	40	42	41	38
Coal	16	15	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.46	3.36	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.15	2.99	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.72	3.79	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.01	2.78	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.28	3.12	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.32	3.22	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.63	3.63	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.00	0.64	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.30	1.31	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	44.73	52.90	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	56.07	64.16	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	46.59	46.59	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	34.58	34.58	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	35.57	35.57	35.86	31.30	58.87

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