US natgas prices edge up on near-record LNG export feedgas, rising demand

ReutersOct 29, 2025 7:11 PM

LNG export feedgas near record highs, boosting demand
Gas output in Lower 48 states falls in October
March futures premium over April at record low
Gas storage levels about 5% above normal, easing supply concerns

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) export feedgas, a fall in output so far this month and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected.

That small price increase came despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected, which should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas than usual into storage.

On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.1 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $3.376 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Gas futures for December NGZ25, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 1.7% to around $3.80 per mmBtu, which would be the highest close since late June.

The market is showing signs that traders are not worried about having enough gas supplies in storage for the winter. The premium of futures for March over April 2026 NGH26-J26 was on track to fall to a record low of around 7 cents per mmBtu.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected Hurricane Melissa, which crashed across Jamaica and Cuba over the past few days, would keep moving northeast over the Bahamas and Bermuda as it moves across the open Atlantic Ocean in coming days.

The NHC said it does not expect the system to hit the U.S. mainland, but noted it could brush the east coast of Newfoundland in Canada over the weekend.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.5 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 13.

That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.

With the warmer forecast, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 109.3 bcfd this week to 108.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while the forecast for next week was lower.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.5 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

	Week ended Oct 24 Forecast	Week ended Oct 17 Actual	Year ago Oct 24	Five-year average Oct 24
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+73	+87	+79	+67
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,881	3,808	3,853	3,711
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.6%	+4.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.23	3.35	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.79	10.75	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.15	11.12	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	203	207	134	212	221
U.S. GFS CDDs	16	19	49	23	17
U.S. GFS TDDs	219	221	183	235	238

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.0	107.6	107.8	102.8	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.5	7.6	7.3	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.5	115.2	115.1	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.1	2.3	2.2	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.7	6.4	6.6	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.9	16.8	17.3	13.1	11.3
U.S. Commercial	6.8	8.6	9.1	7.3	6.9
U.S. Residential	7.7	11.5	12.3	9.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	31.5	32.5	29.8	34.0	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.8	23.4	23.3	22.6	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.2	2.2	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	76.2	83.8	82.4	80.4	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	101.9	109.3	108.6	N/A	95.9

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	90	90	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	89	90	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 24	Week ended Oct 17	2024	2023	2022
Wind	12	14	11	10	11
Solar	6	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	41	40	42	41	38
Coal	17	15	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.44	3.30	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.05	3.14	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.74	3.73	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.99	3.03	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.20	3.19	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.45	3.41	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.65	3.68	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.36	0.69	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.30	1.30	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	53.06	53.77	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	60.75	64.83	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	45.69	60.55	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	35.08	33.40	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	36.70	35.83	35.86	31.30	58.87

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