US natural gas prices ease to one-week low as storage remains high

ReutersOct 24, 2025 7:10 PM

Gas storage levels about 5% above normal, easing supply concerns
Seasonally cold weather forecast to boost heating demand
LNG export feedgas hits all-time high

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a one-week low on Friday on a small output increase in recent days and ample amounts of fuel in storage.

Forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and near-record flows of gas to liquefied natural gas export plants supported prices.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.0 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $3.304 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 17.

Despite the daily decline, the contract was still up about 10% for the week after sliding about 3% last week and 7% two weeks ago.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Melissa would strengthen into a hurricane on Saturday as it slowly heads north and then west across the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica before continuing north toward Cuba by the middle of next week. The system is not currently expected to reach the U.S. mainland during that time.

Even though storms can boost U.S. gas prices by cutting output along the U.S. Gulf Coast, they are more likely to reduce prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking out power to homes and businesses. About 40% of the power generated in the U.S. comes from gas-fired plants.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 106.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly near-normal through November 8.

With the weather turning seasonally colder, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 101.7 bcfd this week to 107.8 bcfd next week and 108.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 16.5 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas hit an all-time high of 17.29 bcfd on Thursday, topping the prior record of 17.28 bcfd on April 9, with flows to Venture Global LNG's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana at a record 3.7 bcfd. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power equipment.

	Week ended Oct 24 Forecast	Week ended Oct 17 Actual	Year ago Oct 24	Five-year average Oct 24
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+70	+87	+79	+67
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,878	3,808	3,853	3,711
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.5%	+4.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.28	3.34	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.88	11.03	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.27	11.16	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	193	191	105	174	196
U.S. GFS CDDs	28	28	52	32	22
U.S. GFS TDDs	221	219	157	206	218

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	106.7	106.7	106.8	101.9	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.3	7.5	7.1	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.0	114.3	113.9	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.2	2.1	2.1	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.5	6.7	6.7	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.8	16.9	17.2	13.1	11.3
U.S. Commercial	5.9	6.7	8.5	6.4	6.9
U.S. Residential	6.2	7.6	11.4	7.0	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	33.0	31.4	31.0	34.1	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.8	23.3	22.3	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	2.2	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	74.7	76.0	81.8	77.2	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	100.2	101.7	107.8	N/A	95.9

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	96	97	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	91	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	91	92	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 24	Week ended Oct 17	2024	2023	2022
Wind	15	11	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	39	41	42	41	38
Coal	15	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	18	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.34	3.45	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.99	3.09	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.43	3.60	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.82	2.77	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.12	3.28	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.18	3.15	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.21	3.18	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.57	2.32	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.37	1.34	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	53.07	53.61	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	66.00	58.78	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	39.39	46.38	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	21.66	24.11	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	25.84	28.06	35.86	31.30	58.87

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