Alcoa Q3 revenue misses estimates hurt by lower alumina prices

Overview

• Alcoa Q3 revenue of $3.0 bln missed analyst expectations, per LSEG data

• Co reports lower-than-expected adjusted loss per share for Q3

• Net income for Q3 rises to $232 mln, driven by asset sales and restructuring

Outlook

• Alcoa expects 2025 alumina production between 9.5 and 9.7 mln metric tons

• Alcoa expects 2025 aluminum production between 2.3 and 2.5 mln metric tons

• Company expects 4Q25 Alumina Segment EBITDA to improve by $80 mln

Result Drivers

• PRODUCTION INCREASE - Alumina production rose 4% due to reduced maintenance at Australian refineries, while aluminum production increased 1% with progress at the San Ciprián smelter

• REVENUE DECLINE - Revenue decreased 1% sequentially, affected by lower alumina prices and decreased trading activity

• NET INCOME DRIVERS - Net income of $232 mln was influenced by a gain from the Ma’aden joint venture sale and restructuring charges for the Kwinana refinery closure

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 8 "strong buy" or "buy", 5 "hold" and 1 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the aluminum peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Alcoa Corp is $40.50, about 8.1% above its October 21 closing price of $37.23

Press Release: ID:nBw819srSa

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