US natgas prices climb 2% on lower output, near-record LNG export flows

ReutersOct 17, 2025 6:54 PM

Mild weather forecasts reduce gas demand, offsetting output decline
Gas storage levels 4% above normal, easing supply concerns
LNG export flows near record highs, boosting demand

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday on a decline in output so far this month and near-record amounts of gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.0 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $3.008 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest level since Sept. 26 for a third day in a row.

Despite the daily gain, the front-month declined about 3% this week after dropping about 7% last week.

In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean had a 30% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone as it moves into the Caribbean Sea over the next week. The system is not expected to reach the U.S. mainland during that time.

Even though storms can boost U.S. gas prices by cutting output along the U.S. Gulf Coast, they are more likely to reduce prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking out power to homes and businesses. About 40% of the power generated in the U.S. comes from gas-fired plants.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 1.

That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 100.1 bcfd this week to 100.6 bcfd next week and 103.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.4 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Oct 17 Forecast	Week ended Oct 10 Actual	Year ago Oct 17	Five-year average Oct 17
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+74	+80	+79	+77
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,795	3,721	3,774	3,644
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.1%	+4.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.92	2.94	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.07	11.09	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.20	11.05	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	118	122	108	137	164
U.S. GFS CDDs	38	39	45	44	29
U.S. GFS TDDs	156	161	153	181	193

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	106.5	106.7	106.9	101.9	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	6.9	7.3	7.1	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	113.4	114.0	114.1	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.4	2.2	2.2	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.4	6.7	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.1	16.8	16.9	13.9	11.3
U.S. Commercial	5.3	5.9	6.6	7.0	6.9
U.S. Residential	4.9	6.1	7.3	8.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	35.8	33.1	30.9	33.6	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.2	22.7	22.8	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	75.5	74.7	74.8	78.9	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	100.7	100.1	100.6	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	95	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	90	88	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	87	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 17	Week ended Oct 10	2024	2023	2022
Wind	11	10	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	41	42	42	41	38
Coal	17	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	18	17	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.82	2.79	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.00	2.14	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.62	3.70	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.88	1.97	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.43	2.56	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.18	2.28	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.13	3.22	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.07	1.28	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.12	1.05	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	34.20	30.69	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	43.56	45.08	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	39.74	46.42	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	16.75	23.25	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	20.26	23.74	35.86	31.30	58.87

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