TECHNICALS-CBOT soybeans may retest support at $9.46 in Q4
SINGAPORE, Oct 16 (Reuters) - CBOT soybeans Sc1 may retest support at $9.46 per bushel in the fourth quarter, a break below which may open the way towards the $8.06-1/4 to $8.92-1/2 range.
The uptrend from $9.36-1/4 has been developing within a rising channel, which was temporarily violated when the market fell to the July low of $9.60-3/4.
The violation signals the first attempt of the market to escape from the narrow rising channel. The short uptrend could be well broken down into five waves, a structure that strongly suggests the reversal of the trend.
The downtrend from the June 2022 high of $17.84 is believed to have resumed. Riding on a wave (e), the trend may extend into the range of $8.06-1/4 to $8.92-1/2, based on a projection analysis.
A break above $10.32-1/2 would indicate the extension of the uptrend toward $10.82-1/4 to $11.18-3/4 range.
On the monthly chart, a retracement analysis on the uptrend from $4.15-1/2 to $17.99 marks key support and resistance levels.
The support at $9.44 triggered the bounce which has been so far weak and capped below resistance at $11.07-1/4. This weak bounce, reflected in a sideways move, confirms a steady downtrend.
A break above $11.07-1/4 would be interpreted as a convincing signal of the downtrend reversal.
Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
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