US natural gas futures hit over two-week low on milder weather, weaker demand forecasts

ReutersOct 14, 2025 1:19 PM

By Anushree Mukherjee

Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 2% on Tuesday to hit a more than two-week low, weighed down by forecasts for milder weather and lower demand in the coming days.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.0 cents, or 2.2%, to $3.05 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), hitting their lowest level since September 26.

"Natural gas prices continue to come under pressure as the late season heat, which is currently providing elevated power sector demands in the central US, is expected to soften and shift more bearish as it migrates north," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 28.

Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 100.7 bcfd last week to 99.5 bcfd this week.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states stood at 106.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

"For the day, look for the November contract to find support around $3.03 and any rally back to be limited by resistance at $3.13," Cunningham added.

Gas pricing will continue to be driven more by the weather than by daily shifts in fundamentals such as production and exports, analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. And with the shoulder period soon approaching, the weather factor will be further diminished in likely narrowing weekly price ranges, they added.

Meanwhile, Shell SHEL.L has approved the development of an offshore gas project in Nigeria along with its joint venture partner Sunlink Energies, the oil major said on Tuesday, the latest in a series of investments by its Nigerian business.

Elsewhere, Dutch and British gas contracts were little changed on Tuesday morning after falling for four consecutive days, as a rise in demand amid less windy and chillier weather this week was tempered by rising imports of liquefied natural gas. NG/EU

	Week ended Oct 10 Forecast	Week ended Oct 3 Actual	Year ago Oct 10	Five-year average Oct 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+75	+80	+77	+83
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,716	3,641	3,695	3,567
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.2%	+4.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.05	3.06	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.17	10.73	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.04	11.06	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	107	103	101	124	132
U.S. GFS CDDs	47	47	35	36	28
U.S. GFS TDDs	154	150	136	160	160

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	106.5	106.4	106.9	101.9	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	6.9	7.3	7.2	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	113.4	113.7	114.1	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.4	2.3	2.3	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.5	6.6	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.1	16.9	17.0	13.9	11.3
U.S. Commercial	5.3	5.9	6.5	7.0	6.9
U.S. Residential	4.9	6.2	7.2	8.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	35.8	32.2	31.1	33.6	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.2	22.5	22.8	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	75.5	73.9	74.8	78.9	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	100.7	99.5	100.7	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	88	87	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 17	Week ended Oct 10	2024	2023	2022
Wind	13	10	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	38	42	42	41	38
Coal	17	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	17	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.90	2.90	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.49	1.49	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.56	3.56	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.28	1.28	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.69	2.70	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.63	1.63	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.84	2.84	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.56	-1.56	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.21	0.86	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	39.61	33.53	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	61.28	57.65	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	55.03	47.66	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	24.75	24.83	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	30.62	26.47	35.86	31.30	58.87

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