US natgas prices ease to two-week low on ample storage and mild weather

ReutersOct 13, 2025 2:04 PM

March-April futures spread hits record low, indicating supply confidence
Cove Point LNG export plant back in service
Waha Hub prices fall below zero again due to pipeline maintenance
LNG export feedgas on track to hit monthly record high
Gas storage levels 4% above normal for this time of year

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a two-week low on ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for milder weather than previously expected over the next two weeks that should keep heating and cooling demand low.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.0 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.076 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since September 26 for a second day in a row.

Looking forward, the market is showing signs that traders are not worried about having enough gas supplies in storage for the winter, with the premium of futures for March over April 2026 NGH26-J26 on track to fall to a record low of around 9 cents per mmBtu.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell back into negative territory for an eighth time this month as ongoing pipeline maintenance, like work on Kinder Morgan's KMI.N Permian Highway, trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

That was the 21st time Waha prices have dropped below zero so far this year and compares with an average of $1.38 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023).

Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 28.

That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 99.7 bcfd this week to 100.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.3 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas rose to a six-month high of 17.0 bcfd on Sunday after Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point plant in Maryland exited a planned maintenance outage.

That was the highest amount of daily LNG feedgas since gas flows hit a record 17.3 bcfd on April 9.

	Week ended Oct 10 Forecast	Week ended Oct 3 Actual	Year ago Oct 10	Five-year average Oct 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+75	+80	+77	+83
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,716	3,641	3,695	3,567
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.2%	+4.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.06	3.11	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.73	10.87	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.06	11.08	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	103	111	108	137	147
U.S. GFS CDDs	47	52	45	44	34
U.S. GFS TDDs	150	163	153	181	181

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	106.5	106.3	106.8	101.9	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	6.9	7.2	7.2	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	113.4	113.5	114.0	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.4	2.4	2.3	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.5	6.6	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.1	16.7	16.8	13.9	11.3
U.S. Commercial	5.3	5.9	6.4	7.0	6.9
U.S. Residential	4.9	6.2	7.0	8.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	35.8	32.5	31.6	33.6	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.3	22.5	22.8	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.2	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	75.5	74.2	75.1	78.9	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	100.7	99.7	100.9	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	89	87	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	89	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 17	Week ended Oct 10	2024	2023	2022
Wind	13	10	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	38	42	42	41	38
Coal	17	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	17	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.90	3.25	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.49	1.74	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.56	3.83	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.28	1.68	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.70	2.88	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.63	1.88	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.84	3.55	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.56	1.23	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.86	0.95	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	33.53	33.53	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	57.65	45.48	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	47.66	36.12	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	24.83	33.25	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	26.47	32.23	35.86	31.30	58.87

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