Goldman Sachs expects copper price to remain in $10,000-$11,000/t price range in 2026/2027

Oct 10 (Reuters) - Copper prices are expected to stay in a range of $10,000-$11,000 per metric ton in 2026/2027 due to a market surplus, though the long-term outlook remains positive, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday.

The bank noted three key factors that could limit copper's upside: First: Chinese buyers could reduce purchases if prices exceed $11,000, as they did in the second quarter of 2024. Second: excess U.S. inventory could quickly rebalance the market if London Metals Exchange spreads tighten. Third: data centre-related demand has likely been overstated.

Copper prices fell on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was calculating a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, stoking fears the trade war between the world's two largest economies could escalate. MET/L

In the nickel market, Goldman noted that Indonesian producer margins need to decline further to limit supply growth and reverse the nagging market surplus. It forecast a 6% decline in nickel prices to $14,500 per metric ton by December 2026.

The note added that Goldman expects an aluminium market surplus as Indonesian supply ramps up from mid-2026. The aluminium price was seen at $2,350/t in the fourth quarter of 2026, and was forecast to not return to current levels until 2030.

China is expected to shift from being a zinc net importer to a net exporter in 2026 due to rising domestic production, Goldman said.

"We see rising Chinese domestic production moving the country from deficit into surplus, while the ex-China market moves to deficit. In order to balance the global market, Chinese producers need to be incentivized to export," it noted.

In the cobalt market, new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which supplies 70% of global cobalt, are likely to create a market deficit in 2026. This will support prices as supply tightens, according to the note.

Goldman also expects lithium prices to stay low-for-longer through 2026, averaging $8,900 a metric ton, as persistent oversupply keeps the market in surplus.