US natgas drops on profit taking ahead of storage report

ReutersOct 2, 2025 12:58 PM

Oct 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Thursday as traders took profits after prices rose to a more-than a two-months high in the previous session, while market awaits a federal weekly storage report due later in the day.

Front-month, gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 0.8% to $3.45 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 8:35 a.m. ET. The contract hit its highest level since July 18 in the previous session.

"We are seeing some pullback this morning as bullish investors take some profits and we retract from slightly overbought," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

He added that the November contract is expected to find support around $3.40 and will likely trade within a range of $3.36 to $3.47.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

U.S. energy firms likely added a below-normal 68 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage last week, according to the average estimate of analysts in a Reuters poll on Wednesday.

That compares with a boost of 54 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2020-2024) average build of 85 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 101.5 bcfd this week to 99.2 bcfd next week.

On the storm front, Hurricane Imelda is expected to become an extra-tropical low later in the day, with gradual weakening forecast for the next several days.

Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports hit a record in September at 9.4 million metric tons, beating their previous record of 9.3 million MT in August, according to preliminary data from financial firm LSEG.

Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were little changed early on Thursday as lower LNG supply due to a strike in France was offset by weaker demand from power plants amid strong wind power output. NG/EU

	Week ended Sep 26 Forecast	Week ended Sep 19 Actual	Year ago Sep 26	Five-year average Sep 26
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+68	+75	+54	+85
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,576	3,508	3,540	3,390
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.5%	+6.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.46	3.38	2.57	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.05	10.73	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.04	11.05	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	64	54	54	77	92
U.S. GFS CDDs	76	83	74	59	46
U.S. GFS TDDs	140	137	128	136	138

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.2	107.2	107.7	101.4	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.0	6.8	7.2	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.3	114.1	114.9	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.0	2.1	2.3	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.9	6.8	6.9	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.6	16.1	15.9	12.1	11.3
U.S. Commercial	4.8	4.8	5.3	4.9	6.9
U.S. Residential	3.8	3.9	4.8	4.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	41.6	38.4	34.5	37.9	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.1	21.9	22.2	21.9	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	79.8	76.5	74.2	76.3	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	105.3	101.5	99.2	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	86	86	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 3	Week ended Sep 26	2024	2023	2022
Wind	7	7	11	10	11
Solar	7	6	5	4	3
Hydro	4	4	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	45	42	41	38
Coal	17	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.24	3.12
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.55	1.70
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.76	3.72
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.60	1.79
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.98	2.91
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.05	2.75
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.23	3.11
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.97	-1.27
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.34	0.03

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	35.38	33.09
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	44.25	49.92
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	43.43	41.92
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	23.88	20.88
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	21.38	20.60

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