US natgas futures hits over 2- month high on warmer weather outlook

ReutersSep 30, 2025 2:06 PM

By Anushree Mukherjee

Sept 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed to a more than two-month high on Tuesday, supported by forecasts that warmer-than-normal weather will persist through mid-October, which is expected to keep demand elevated.

Front-month, gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 4.7 cents, or 1.4% to $3.31 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 9:42 a.m. ET, its highest level since July 21. The contract was up about 10% for the month so far.

"We did have some weather models that are trending more supportive... So, that's indicating that we should see some higher power burns, the higher demand with the flat supply should reduce the amount of storage injections," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 14.

Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would be at 100.0 bcfd next week. The forecast was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

According to early estimates, analysts forecast energy firms injected 66 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended September 26. That compares with an injection of 54 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average increase of 85 bcf. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

On the storm front, Imelda became the fourth hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Tuesday ahead of its approach to Bermuda. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Imelda is likely to remain a hurricane as it approaches the island on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be European oil major Shell's biggest contribution to the energy industry over the next decade in terms of value and as it seeks to cut emissions from fossil fuel production, CEO Wael Sawan said on Monday.

	Week ended Sep 26 Forecast	Week ended Sep 19 Actual	Year ago Sep 26	Five-year average Sep 26
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+66	+75	+54	+85
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,574	3,508	3,540	3,390
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.4%	+6.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.34	3.18	2.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.09	11.07	11.75	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.20	11.30	13.41	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	53	42	38	70	85
U.S. GFS CDDs	84	85	81	63	49
U.S. GFS TDDs	137	127	119	133	134

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.2	107.9	108.0	101.4	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.0	6.9	7.1	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.3	114.9	115.1	N/A	105.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.0	2.0	1.9	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.9	7.7	7.7	N/A	6.3
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.6	16.2	16.1	12.1	10.6
U.S. Commercial	4.8	4.9	5.2	4.9	5.0
U.S. Residential	3.8	4.0	4.6	4.1	3.9
U.S. Power Plant	41.6	37.7	34.7	37.9	37.0
U.S. Industrial	22.1	22.1	22.2	21.9	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.1	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	79.8	76.1	74.2	76.3	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	105.3	101.9	100.0	N/A	89.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	76	76	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Sep 26	Week ended Sep 19	2024	2023	2022
Wind	7	7	11	10	11
Solar	7	6	5	4	3
Hydro	4	4	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	45	42	41	38
Coal	17	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.93	2.90
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.89	1.70
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.56	3.49
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.83	1.69
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.81	2.71
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.50	1.90
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.97	3.05
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.01	-1.13
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.12	-0.56

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	38.13	45.75
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	66.21	81.71
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	49.51	48.95
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	21.00	26.21
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	25.32	29.75

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