Gold hits fresh all-time high as Fed outlook and global risks fuel demand

• Gold extends its record run, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,791 on Tuesday.
• Fed officials struck a cautious tone on further cuts on Monday, although Governor Stephen Miran called for deeper 50 bps moves.
• Traders now await Fed Chair Powell’s speech later on Tuesday for fresh monetary policy cues.

Gold (XAU/USD) pushes deeper into uncharted territory on Tuesday, climbing to another record high as expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts and lingering geopolitical risks underpin steady safe-haven demand. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $3,780, after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,791 earlier in the day.

Market focus remains on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook following its 25-basis-point (bps) cut last week, with traders pricing in the likelihood of two more reductions before year-end. Lower borrowing costs typically weaken the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding Gold.

Still, comments from Fed officials on Monday suggested a cautious stance toward further easing, with only Governor Stephen Miran arguing for deeper cuts, warning that policy is “well into restrictive territory” and risks unnecessary layoffs unless short-term rates are lowered more aggressively.

Traders now turn their attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak later on Tuesday at 16:35 GMT, for fresh policy cues. Although no major data have been released since last week’s press conference, his message is expected to remain broadly in line with earlier remarks.

Market movers: Fed caution and geopolitical risks keep Gold in demand

• Michelle W. Bowman, Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed, is also due to speak ahead of Powell’s remarks, alongside the release of the preliminary September S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.
• In his first policy speech since joining the Fed, Governor Stephen Miran said at the Economic Club of New York that it would be “better to move to neutral quickly” and called for a series of 50 bps cuts to recalibrate policy. He emphasized that, unless conditions shift, he will continue to press for larger reductions and is prepared to dissent again if needed.
• However, not all policymakers share Miran’s sense of urgency. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem argued that the economy has only limited room for additional easing, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stressed the need to tread carefully to avoid reigniting price pressure. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also downplayed the case for more immediate action, saying he sees little justification for further cuts at this stage.
• Deutsche Bank noted that Monday’s Fed commentary prompted investors to slightly scale back easing bets. Fed funds futures at Monday’s settlement priced in 43 bps of cuts by year-end, compared with 45 bps on Friday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign nearly a 92% probability of another 25 bps cut in October, while the odds of an additional move in December stand around 73%.
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated across multiple regions. Russia-NATO frictions have escalated following airspace violations over Eastern Europe, while Iran faces renewed pressure over its nuclear program, and persistent instability in the Middle East is all reinforcing safe-haven flows into Gold and shaping risk sentiment across markets.
• Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that China is courting foreign central banks to store part of their gold reserves in the country through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The initiative aims to boost Beijing’s global influence in the Bullion market.

Technical analysis: XAU/ USD bulls unstoppable despite overbought conditions

XAU/USD continues to surge into record-breaking territory, with the rally firmly underpinned by strong momentum and robust safe-haven demand. Price action remains comfortably above the 21, 50, and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on both the daily and intraday charts, underscoring the strength of the bullish trend.

Despite daily and hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings flashing deep into overbought territory, buyers remain firmly in control. Unless Gold slips back below $3,700, the path of least resistance stays higher, leaving room for further all-time highs in the near term.

On the downside, $3,750 emerges as immediate psychological support, cushioning any short-term pullback. The next level to watch is $3,700, while a more solid base lies at $3,620, the previous consolidation floor that aligns with the 100-SMA.

Economic Indicator

Fed's Chair Powell speech

Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.

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Source: Federal Reserve