US natgas prices rise as warm weather lifts demand

ReutersSep 22, 2025 2:09 PM

Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained on Monday, supported by forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and firmer demand in the coming days.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.4 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.92 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:23 a.m. EDT (1323 GMT).

"Warmer weather for the remainder of the month should provide some incremental power sector demands for gas, but with resistance at $2.92 and $2.98 a push back above $3 doesn’t appear to be in the cards before October rolls off the board," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain warmer than normal through at least October 4.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, jumped from 101.1 bcfd last week to 104.2 bcfd this week.

"Today will likely see the October contract continue to test the support level at $2.85 with firmer support also present at $2.81," Cunningham added.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) last week said energy firms injected 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended September 12. That was the biggest weekly increase since June.

That was bigger than the 80-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters pollEIA/GASNGAS/POLL

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Hurricane Gabrielle intensified into a Category 3 hurricane on Monday and could intensify even more through the day, though some weakening should begin by Wednesday.

U.S. oil major Chevron CVX.N is in early-stage talks to explore opportunities in European regasification terminals, as part of its strategy to expand its global presence in the liquefied natural gas market, a senior executive told Reuters.

	Week ended Sep 19 Forecast	Week ended Sep 12 Actual	Year ago Sep 19	Five-year average Sep 19
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+66	+90	+49	+76
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,499	3,433	3,486	3,305
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.9%	+6.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.92	2.91	2.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.33	11.30	11.75	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	-	11.53	13.41	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	22	20	16	47	61
U.S. GFS CDDs	111	122	97	81	66
U.S. GFS TDDs	133	142	113	128	127

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.4	106.9	107.2	101.0	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.1	6.8	6.9	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.5	113.7	114.1	N/A	105.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.9	2.1	2.1	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	8.0	7.6	7.8	N/A	6.3
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.5	15.3	15.4	12.8	10.6
U.S. Commercial	4.8	4.8	4.9	4.8	5.0
U.S. Residential	4.1	3.8	4.0	4.0	3.9
U.S. Power Plant	37.2	41.1	37.6	40.2	37.0
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.1	22.1	21.8	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.1	2.0	2.0	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	75.7	79.2	76.1	78.2	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	101.1	104.2	101.3	N/A	89.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	76	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Sep 26	Week ended Sep 19	2024	2023	2022
Wind	7	8	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	4	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	44	42	41	38
Coal	18	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.89	3.10
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.29	1.80
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	-	4.05
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.48	1.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.78	2.89
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.56	1.89
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.66	3.98
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-	0.19
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.08	0.14

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	31.89	34.85
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	51.45	60.67
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	55.88	45.24
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	34.80	37.08
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	39.66	36.84

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