US natgas futures little changed on steady demand, spot prices in Texas turn negative

ReutersSep 15, 2025 1:25 PM

Waha Hub prices turn negative due to pipeline maintenance
LSEG reports slight drop in US gas output for September
Warmer weather expected to increase gas demand for power generation

By Scott DiSavino

Sept 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Monday on forecasts for steady demand over the next two weeks even as cash prices in West Texas fell into negative territory.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.1 cent to $2.942 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian shale in West Texas turned negative as autumn pipeline maintenance and other constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a disturbance in the central Atlantic had an 80% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days as it moves northwest across the Atlantic Ocean. The system, however, is not expected to reach land in North America during that time.

Even though storms can boost gas prices by cutting output along the U.S. Gulf Coast, they are more likely to reduce prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking out power to homes and businesses. About 40% of the power generated in the U.S. comes from gas-fired plants.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year, and analysts said they expect that percentage to mostly grow in coming weeks. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain warmer than normal through at least September 30. That heat should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 102.5 bcfd this week to 103.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were in line with LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 15.6 bcfd so far in September, down from 15.8 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

In other LNG news, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point plant in Maryland is scheduled to shut soon for about a month of planned annual autumn maintenance.

	Week ended Sep 12 Forecast	Week ended Sep 5 Actual	Year ago Sep 12	Five-year average Sep 12
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+73	+71	+56	+74
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,416	3,343	3,437	3,229
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.8%	+6.0%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.94	2.94	2.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.07	11.23	11.75	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.36	11.35	13.41	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	15	17	11	38	49
U.S. GFS CDDs	141	143	130	112	95
U.S. GFS TDDs	156	160	141	150	144

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.4	107.6	107.5	101.0	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.1	6.7	6.8	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.5	114.3	114.2	N/A	105.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.9	2.0	2.0	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	8.0	7.6	8.0	N/A	6.3
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.5	15.7	15.6	12.8	10.6
U.S. Commercial	4.8	4.7	4.8	4.8	5.0
U.S. Residential	4.1	3.8	3.9	4.0	3.9
U.S. Power Plant	37.2	39.1	39.2	40.2	37.0
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.0	22.1	21.8	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.0	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	75.7	77.2	77.5	78.2	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	101.1	102.5	103.1	N/A	89.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Sep 19	Week ended Sep 12	2024	2023	2022
Wind	11	9	11	10	11
Solar	8	8	5	4	3
Hydro	4	4	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	41	43	42	41	38
Coal	16	15	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	19	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.86	2.81
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.75	2.05
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.57	3.75
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.61	1.89
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.73	2.68
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.95	2.15
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.25	3.39
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.26	0.06
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.41	0.46

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	30.61	30.61
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	57.61	42.15
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	46.37	47.18
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	32.92	29.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	35.09	23.02

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