US CPC sees 71% chance of La Niña during Oct-Dec

Sept 11 (Reuters) - A transition from El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral to La Niña is likely in the next couple of months, with a 71% chance of La Niña during October to December, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

"Thereafter, La Niña is favored but chances decrease to 54% in December 2025-February 2026," the U.S. weather forecaster added.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

La Nina is part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Nina results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

KEY QUOTES

"If we get to a weak La Nina, it should be very brief and weak... all the models warm back to neutral by the end of the year," and a slow warming to near or above neutral conditions by late next spring, said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.

"Neutral conditions typically result in favorable growing conditions in the north central U.S., but drier conditions in the central and southern Plains for the fall/winter. The outlook is a bit more favorable for South America, especially central and northern Brazil," he added.

CONTEXT

Japan's weather bureau said on Wednesday that there was a 60% chance that the La Nina phenomenon would not emerge and normal weather conditions would continue towards the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday that a return of La Nina may start to affect global weather patterns from September.