US natgas prices edge up to 7-week high on lower output

ReutersSep 9, 2025 1:32 PM

Recent declines in output boost natural gas futures
Lower 48 states' gas output falls to 107.5 bcfd in September
LNG export feedgas drops to two-week low of 14.9 bcfd
Warmer weather offsets usual rise in heating demand

By Scott DiSavino

Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a seven-week high on Tuesday on recent declines in daily output.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.2 cents, or 1.4%, to $3.132 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its highest close since July 22.

That price increase, which pushed the contract into technically overbought territory, came despite forecasts for lower gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants in recent days and ample supplies of gas in storage.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary eight-week low of 106.3 bcfd on Tuesday, down from an average of 107.6 bcfd over the prior seven days. That compares with a daily record high of 109.6 bcfd on July 29.

Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual this summer. There was about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of the year, and analysts said they expect that percentage to grow in coming weeks. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain warmer than normal through at least September 24, offsetting the usual rise in heating demand that starts around this time of year. Homes and businesses burn more gas for heating during the winter than energy firms burn in power plants to produce electricity for air conditioning.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 100.8 bcfd this week to 103.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 15.7 bcfd so far in September, down from 15.8 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to fall to a two-week low of 14.9 bcfd on Tuesday due to recent decreases at several plants, including Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas and 4.5-bcfd Sabine in Louisiana, Venture Global LNG's VG.N 1.6-bcfd Calcasieu in Louisiana and Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

That compares with a daily LNG feedgas record of 17.3 bcfd on April 9.

In other LNG news, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point plant in Maryland is scheduled to shut around September 15 for about a month of planned annual autumn maintenance.

	Week ended Sep 5 Forecast	Week ended Aug 29 Actual	Year ago Sep 5	Five-year average Sep 5
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+66	+55	+36	+56
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,338	3,272	3,381	3,155
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.8%	+5.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.15	3.09	2.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.27	11.38	11.75	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.35	11.30	13.41	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	10	11	13	25	34
U.S. GFS CDDs	146	136	139	132	112
U.S. GFS TDDs	156	147	152	157	146

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.9	107.3	107.6	100.7	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.1	7.1	6.8	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	115.0	114.4	114.4	N/A	105.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.2	2.0	2.0	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	8.2	8.0	8.2	N/A	6.3
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.7	15.5	15.2	12.7	10.6
U.S. Commercial	4.6	4.8	4.7	4.8	5.0
U.S. Residential	3.7	4.1	3.8	4.1	3.9
U.S. Power Plant	40.7	36.8	39.9	39.3	37.0
U.S. Industrial	22.0	22.2	22.0	21.9	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.1	2.0	2.1	2.1	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	78.6	75.3	78.0	77.6	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	104.6	100.8	103.4	N/A	89.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Sep 12	Week ended Sep 5	2024	2023	2022
Wind	6	6	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	45	42	41	38
Coal	15	16	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	19	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.10	3.05
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.88	2.00
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.70	3.75
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.76	1.56
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.78	2.72
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.15	2.05
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.50	3.40
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.85	1.31
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.76	0.70

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	35.21	41.90
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	33.32	30.31
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	58.50	52.30
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	39.05	38.33
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	29.98	30.27

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