US natural gas futures dip 3% on high output and mild weather
By Scott DiSavino
September 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Tuesday on near-record output, ample supplies of gas in storage, a small decline in flows to liquefied natural gas export plants, and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.5 cents, or 2.8%, to $2.912 per million British thermal units at 10:11 a.m. EDT (1411 GMT). On Friday, the contract closed at its highest since July 8. U.S. markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday.
In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean had a 70% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week as it heads west toward the Caribbean Islands.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.
Record output has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual this summer. Analysts said there was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year and expected that amount to grow in the coming weeks. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through September 17, which is about the same as previously expected.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 104.4 bcfd this week to 103.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was lower.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has slid to 15.6 bcfd so far in September, down from 15.8 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to ease to 15.6 bcfd on Tuesday from an average of 15.8 bcfd last week due to decreases at a couple of plants, including Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd plant in Corpus Christi, Texas, and Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana.
That decline in daily LNG feedgas came even though flows to Venture Global LNG's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana were on track to rise to a record 3.3 bcfd on Tuesday. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some to fuel liquefaction and other equipment.
Week ended Aug 29 Forecast | Week ended Aug 22 Actual | Year ago Aug 29 | Five-year average Aug 29 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +48 | +18 | +16 | +36 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,265 | 3,217 | 3,345 | 3,099 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.1% | +5.0% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.94 | 3.00 | 2.41 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.09 | 10.73 | 11.75 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.22 | 11.21 | 13.41 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
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LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 22 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 21 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 138 | 149 | 142 | 149 | 134 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 160 | 163 | 155 | 166 | 155 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 101.2 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.8 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.8 | 114.9 | 114.8 | N/A | 105.1 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | N/A | 6.3 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 16.0 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 10.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
U.S. Residential | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 43.0 | 40.7 | 39.5 | 43.0 | 37.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 21.7 | 21.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 80.9 | 78.6 | 78.2 | 80.8 | 76.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 107.6 | 104.4 | 103.9 | N/A | 89.2 |
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N/A is Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 77 | 77 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 80 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Sep 5 | Week ended Aug 29 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
Wind | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 45 | 46 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day |
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Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.88 | 2.90 |
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Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.55 | 1.30 |
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PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.63 | 3.30 |
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Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.37 | 1.26 |
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Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.58 | 2.45 |
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Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.50 | 1.35 |
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SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.61 | 3.25 |
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Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.87 | 1.20 |
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AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.50 | 0.64 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day |
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New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 31.50 | 28.00 |
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PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 32.98 | 28.40 |
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Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 74.60 | 43.85 |
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Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 57.83 | 39.25 |
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SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 55.09 | 34.89 |
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