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US natural gas slides to 10-month low as summer demand fades

ReutersAug 25, 2025 7:20 PM
  • LNG export flows increase as plants exit outages
  • U.S. LNG exports seen rising 10% annually through 2030
  • Lower 48 demand seen falling from 111 bcfd this week to 104 bcfd in two weeks

- U.S. natural gas futures fell to a 10-month low on Monday, pressured by forecasts for cooler weather and fading summer demand that eased concerns about tight storage levels ahead of winter.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.2 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $2.70 per million British thermal units. The contract hit its lowest since November 4, 2024.

"With summer waning, it is becoming clear that the expectation of strong power-sector demand and growing exports limiting injections and giving us a below-normal storage level to enter winter is simply not going to manifest," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

"Weather over the next two weeks now looks to be firmly cooler than normal, limiting late-season cooling demand. There is also little impactful activity in the Atlantic basin tropics, with nothing likely to form in the next seven days."

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 13 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended August 15.

That was smaller than the 22-bcf build analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with an increase of 29 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 35 bcf over the 2020 to 2024 period.

Analysts said the smaller-than-usual build reflected increased cooling demand during hot weather last week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

The price decline came despite an increase in daily gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants as some units exited brief outages in recent days.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.9 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.6 bcfd in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to 108.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.8 bcfd in July.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 111.0 bcfd this week to 106.5 bcfd next week and 104.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Friday.

U.S. LNG exports will soar by roughly 10% a year through 2030 as energy firms double their production capacity, according to analysts, providing a shot in the arm to the country's maturing shale industry, which has seen growth slow and costs rise.

The U.S. is the world's largest oil and natural gas producer, but many of its best drilling locations have been tapped. While oil production is expected to plateau or fall in coming months, gas remains a bright spot for the industry thanks primarily to the country's booming exports.

In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected no disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Fernand, which formed south-southeast of Bermuda on Saturday, was expected to weaken beginning Monday night and become post-tropical on Wednesday.

Week ended Aug 22 Forecast

Week ended Aug 15 Actual

Year ago Aug 22

Five-year average Aug 22

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+32

+13

+35

+38

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,231

3,199

3,329

3,063

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+5.5%

+5.8%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.65

2.80

2.09

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

9.78

11.32

12.40

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.55

11.44

13.31

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

10

8

8

9

10

U.S. GFS CDDs

142

169

157

148

137

U.S. GFS TDDs

152

177

165

157

147

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

108.4

108.8

108.2

101.7

97.9

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.5

7.5

7.6

N/A

7.5

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

115.8

116.3

115.8

N/A

105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.4

2.6

2.5

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.4

7.2

7.3

N/A

6.4

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

15.0

16.2

16.0

13.1

10.2

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

U.S. Residential

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.4

U.S. Power Plant

48.3

42.3

40.2

43.5

44.4

U.S. Industrial

22.2

22.3

22.2

21.8

21.9

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

3.1

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

86.3

80.5

78.2

81.1

82.8

Total U.S. Demand

111.1

106.5

104.0

N/A

95.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

77

77

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

78

78

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

80

80

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Aug 29

Week ended Aug 22

2024

2023

2022

Wind

6

5

11

10

11

Solar

7

7

5

4

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

46

46

42

41

38

Coal

16

19

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

17

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.76

2.88

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.66

1.98

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.27

3.28

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.64

1.89

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.50

2.55

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.85

2.16

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.51

3.50

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.92

1.05

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.79

0.55

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

45.50

40.07

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

36.40

35.48

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

117.65

76.81

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

73.29

66.67

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

55.13

53.74

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