StoneX forecasts Brazil's 2025-2026 Arabica crop to fall almost a fifth
SAO PAULO, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2025-2026 Arabica coffee crop is forecast to fall 18.4% versus the 2024-2025 crop according to consultancy StoneX, which expects the country to produce some 36.5 million 60-kilogram bags of the commodity.
The forecast decline follows an underwhelming Arabica crop in the 2024-2025 year, where the 44.7 million bags of Arabica produced fell short of expectations, StoneX said.
"Since 2020, Brazil's coffee production has faced successive climate challenges which have equally affected the volume harvested and potential output. This scenario has returned again in the 2025/26 harvest, mostly impacting Arabica," StoneX said in a research note.
The findings will add extra fuel to already soaring coffee prices, which are rising on uncertainty amid a 50% tariff slapped on goods from Brazil - the world's biggest coffee producer and exporter - by U.S. President Donald Trump.
In a previous estimate, StoneX had forecast Brazil's 2025-2026 Arabica crop would hit 38.7 million bags.
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