US natgas prices slide 2% on near-record output, ample gas in storage

ReutersAug 22, 2025 3:22 PM

Near-record output and ample storage pressure prices
LNG export flows increase as plants exit outages
Weather forecasts remain near-normal through early September

By Scott DiSavino

Aug 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Friday on near-record output, ample supplies of gas in storage and forecasts for the weather to remain near normal through early September.

That price decline came despite an increase in daily gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants as some units exited brief outages in recent days.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.1 cents, or 2.2%, to $2.765 per million British thermal units at 8:52 a.m. EDT (1252 GMT).

For the week, the contract fell about 5%, putting it down for a fifth week in a row for the first time since December 2023. Futures prices have dropped by about 22% during those five weeks.

In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected several disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean had a chance of strengthening into tropical cyclones over the next week or so, but expected none to hit the U.S. mainland during that time.

One system, however, with a 50% chance of turning into a cyclone over the next seven days, was headed west toward Barbados and other Caribbean Islands. Hurricane Erin, meanwhile, was expected to weaken as it swirls northeast toward Iceland.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 108.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.8 bcfd in July.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through September 6, which is about the same as previously expected.

Despite hotter-than-usual weather earlier in the summer, record output allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. Analysts said there was about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 111.0 bcfd this week to 106.7 bcfd next week and 104.7 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.8 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise from an average of 14.2 bcfd from Monday-Wednesday to 16.2 bcfd on Friday with increases at several plants, including Venture Global LNG's 1.6-bcfd Calcasieu in Louisiana, Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana, and Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

	Week ended Aug 22 Forecast	Week ended Aug 15 Actual	Year ago Aug 22	Five-year average Aug 22
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+32	+13	+35	+38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,231	3,199	3,329	3,063
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.5%	+5.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.80	2.83	2.09	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.32	11.29	12.40	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.44	11.11	13.31	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	8	8	5	6	9
U.S. GFS CDDs	169	171	207	185	164
U.S. GFS TDDs	177	179	212	191	173

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.2	108.4	107.9	101.7	97.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.7	7.5	7.6	N/A	7.5
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	115.9	115.8	115.4	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.3	2.4	2.5	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.5	7.4	7.4	N/A	6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.8	15.0	16.1	13.1	10.2
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.6
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.4
U.S. Power Plant	48.1	48.3	42.6	43.5	44.4
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.2	22.3	21.8	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.4	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.3	2.1	2.2	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	86.0	86.3	80.7	81.1	82.8
Total U.S. Demand	111.6	111.0	106.7	N/A	95.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 22	Week ended Aug 15	2024	2023	2022
Wind	6	7	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	45	42	41	38
Coal	19	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	17	16	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.88	2.80
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.98	2.03
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.28	3.41
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.89	1.94
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.55	2.56
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.16	2.22
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.50	3.84
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.05	1.11
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.55	0.62

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	40.07	41.22
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	35.48	39.59
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	76.81	66.46
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	66.67	70.04
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	53.74	56.83

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