US natgas prices drop 3% on near-record output, less hot forecasts

ReutersAug 18, 2025 10:24 AM

Gas stockpiles at 6% above normal levels, and rising
Record output and ample stockpiles lead to price slide
Hurricane Erin unlikely to impact US gas production

By Scott DiSavino

Aug 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Monday on near-record output, ample fuel in stockpiles and forecasts for less hot weather next week than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.5 cents, or 3.3%, to $2.821 per million British thermal units by 5:53 a.m. EDT (0953 GMT).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected Hurricane Erin, which was near the Bahamas, would move north and then east off the U.S. East Coast, for the rest of the week without hitting land.

The NHC, however, said another system in the Atlantic Ocean behind Erin had a 50% chance of strengthening into a cyclone over the next week as it moves west toward Puerto Rico.

Even though storms can boost gas prices by knocking Gulf of Mexico gas production out of service, analysts have said storms are more likely to cut demand and prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking power out to millions of homes and businesses, reducing the amount of gas electric generators need to burn.

Only about 2% of all U.S. gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, while over 40% of the electricity produced in the U.S. comes from gas-fired power plants.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 108.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.9 bcfd in July.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least September 2.

Despite hotter-than-usual weather so far this summer, record output has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual in recent months.

Analysts said there was about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year and predicted the amount of gas in stockpiles would keep growing in coming weeks. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 110.7 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.0 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading near a one-year low of $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and at a 15-month low of $11 at the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Aug 15 Forecast	Week ended Aug 8 Actual	Year ago Aug 15	Five-year average Aug 15
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+30	+56	+29	+35
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,216	3,186	3,294	3,025
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.3%	+6.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.81	2.92	2.09	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.70	10.59	12.40	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.95	11.91	13.31	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	4	3	5	6	7
U.S. GFS CDDs	196	220	207	185	172
U.S. GFS TDDs	200	223	212	191	179

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.2	108.0	107.8	101.7	97.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.7	7.5	7.6	N/A	7.5
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	115.9	115.5	115.4	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.3	2.4	2.3	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.5	7.2	7.2	N/A	6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.8	14.6	15.0	13.1	10.2
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.6
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.4
U.S. Power Plant	48.1	48.4	44.3	43.5	44.4
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.2	22.2	21.8	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.2	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	86.0	86.5	82.3	81.1	82.8
Total U.S. Demand	111.6	110.7	106.8	N/A	95.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 22	Week ended Aug 15	2024	2023	2022
Wind		7	11	10	11
Solar		7	5	4	3
Hydro		5	6	6	6
Other		1	1	2	2
Petroleum		0	0	0	0
Natural Gas		45	42	41	38
Coal		18	16	17	21
Nuclear		16	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.98	2.78
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.60	2.55
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.09	3.06
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.48	2.38
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.75	2.64
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.77	2.77
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.25	3.21
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.94	1.11
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.47	0.33

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	72.25	72.25
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	74.47	65.26
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	39.01	35.58
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	43.00	37.60
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	31.33	25.18

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