By Mia MacGregor
Aug 15 - (The Insurer) - Hurricane Erin formed on Friday as the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season and is expected to strengthen over the southwestern Atlantic through the weekend and into next week, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
Erin, which intensified from a tropical storm, reached maximum sustained winds of 75 mph Friday morning, meeting the threshold for hurricane status, the NHC said in an advisory.
“Erin is currently in a favorable environment for strengthening, although there are some uncertainties on whether dry air is entraining into the core,” the agency said. Improved low-level structure could support rapid intensification over the next 36 to 48 hours, according to the NHC.
Erin is moving toward the west-northwest, with its center likely to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Outer rain bands are expected to bring heavy rainfall from Friday night into Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
“This rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides,” the NHC said.
Erin has also raised concerns about another unforeseen risk: wildfires.
Andrew Siffert, a senior meteorologist at BMS Group, noted that if Erin evolves into a large, intense extratropical cyclone offshore, a dangerous alignment could occur: critically dry fuels across the region, strong and dry winds driven by Erin’s pressure gradient and human ignition sources.
“This combination sets the stage for a rare but not unprecedented compound hazard: hurricane-fueled wildfires — a scenario eerily reminiscent of Hurricane Dora and the tragic Lahaina fire in Hawaii in 2023,” Siffert wrote in a post on LinkedIn.
While this remains hypothetical, he added that uncertainties in Erin’s track and transition are a reminder that risk isn’t always what we expect.
“The insurance industry should take note of how tropical cyclones can amplify non-traditional perils like wildfire, even in regions where it seems improbable—cross-hazard awareness matters. As Erin approaches, let’s keep an eye on more than just the eye,” Siffert added.