WTI extends downside to near $62.50 as traders brace for potential US-Russia talks
- WTI price remains under selling pressure around $62.50 in Monday’s early European session.
- Oil traders await the outcome of talks between the US and Russia later on Friday on the war in Ukraine.
- Trump's higher tariffs could weigh on economic activity and drag the WTI lower.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.50 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The WTI extends the decline near the lowest since June amid optimism over the proposed United States (US)-Russia meeting. Oil traders await the American Petroleum Institute (API) Crude Oil stockpiles report, which will be released later on Tuesday.
US President Donald Trump said last week that he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss the Ukraine issue. This announcement came after Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. “If we do see some level of de-escalation, it would remove sanction risk from the oil market. This would likely drive prices lower, given the bearish fundamentals,” said Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist.
Furthermore, Trump's higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, which took effect on Thursday, could fuel concerns over weaker global economic activity and undermine the WTI price. Goods from the EU, Japan and South Korea are taxed at 15%, while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam and Bangladesh are taxed at 20%. Trump also expects the EU, Japan and South Korea to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States.
Oil traders will also take more cues from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for July, which is due later on Tuesday. If the reports show softer-than-expected outcomes, this could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and boost the USD-denominated commodity price.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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