By Scott DiSavino
Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Thursday ahead of the release of a federal report expected to show last week's storage build was smaller than usual for this time of year after extreme heat boosted the amount of gas power generators burned to keep air conditioners humming.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were unchanged at $3.077 per million British thermal units at 9:19 a.m. EDT (1319 GMT).
That lack of price movement came despite near-record output, near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants, and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather to continue through at least late August.
The heat means homes and businesses will likely keep their air conditioners cranked up until the end of the month, forcing power generators to keep burning more gas than usual for this time of year. More than 40% of the electricity produced in the U.S. comes from gas-fired power plants.
Analysts projected energy firms added a smaller-than-normal 17 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended August 1.
That compares with an increase of 21 bcf during the same week last year and an average of 29 bcf over the 2020-2024 period EIA/GAS, NGAS/POLL.
If correct, that build would leave gas stockpiles about 6% above the five-year normal for this time of year.
In the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said two disturbances could turn into tropical cyclones over the next week - one with a 30% chance of forming and another with a 60% chance. It is likely, however, that neither storm will reach land in the U.S.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 107.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from a monthly record high of 107.9 bcfd in July.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to ease to 16.1 bcfd on Thursday, having reached a 16-week high of 16.8 bcfd on Wednesday after Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas exited last week's outages and Venture Global LNG's VG.N Plaquemines plant in Louisiana pulled in a near-record 3.2 bcfd. That compares with a total daily LNG feedgas record high of 17.3 bcfd on April 9.
The LNG export gas flow reduction on Thursday was due to small declines at several plants including at Cheniere Energy's 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, to around 1.7 bcfd on Thursday from a three-week high of 2.4 bcfd on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.
Week ended Aug 1 Forecast | Week ended Jul 25 Actual | Year ago Aug 1 | Five-year average Aug 1 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +17 | +48 | +21 | +29 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,140 | 3,123 | 3,267 | 2,957 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.2% | +6.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.07 | 3.08 | 2.09 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.28 | 11.34 | 12.40 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.93 | 11.99 | 13.31 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
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LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 240 | 240 | 218 | 201 | 189 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 242 | 241 | 223 | 204 | 194 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 108.4 | 107.8 | 107.5 | 102.5 | 97.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.8 | N/A | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.3 | 115.4 | 115.4 | N/A | 105.5 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 14.7 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 10.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 51.3 | 42.6 | 46.6 | 49.7 | 44.4 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 21.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 89.3 | 80.4 | 84.4 | 87.2 | 82.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 112.8 | 105.8 | 109.6 | N/A | 95.3 |
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N/A is Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 77 | 77 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 80 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Aug 8 | Week ended Aug 1 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
Wind | 8 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 43 | 45 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 18 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day |
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Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.02 | 2.98 |
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Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.71 | 2.70 |
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PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.24 | 3.28 |
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Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.64 | 2.49 |
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Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.79 | 2.69 |
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Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.95 | 2.94 |
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SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.45 | 3.40 |
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Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.98 | 1.06 |
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AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.37 | 0.26 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day |
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New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 50.78 | 51.92 |
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PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 45.79 | 45.83 |
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Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 33.82 | 32.67 |
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Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 58.95 | 58.84 |
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SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 44.10 | 42.48 |
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