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US natural gas futures steady ahead of federal storage report

ReutersAug 7, 2025 3:02 PM
  • Near-record gas flows to LNG export plants
  • Extreme heat last week boosts gas demand for air conditioning
  • Gas storage build smaller than usual, analysts project

By Scott DiSavino

- U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Thursday ahead of the release of a federal report expected to show last week's storage build was smaller than usual for this time of year after extreme heat boosted the amount of gas power generators burned to keep air conditioners humming.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were unchanged at $3.077 per million British thermal units at 9:19 a.m. EDT (1319 GMT).

That lack of price movement came despite near-record output, near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants, and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather to continue through at least late August.

The heat means homes and businesses will likely keep their air conditioners cranked up until the end of the month, forcing power generators to keep burning more gas than usual for this time of year. More than 40% of the electricity produced in the U.S. comes from gas-fired power plants.

Analysts projected energy firms added a smaller-than-normal 17 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended August 1.

That compares with an increase of 21 bcf during the same week last year and an average of 29 bcf over the 2020-2024 period EIA/GAS, NGAS/POLL.

If correct, that build would leave gas stockpiles about 6% above the five-year normal for this time of year.

In the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said two disturbances could turn into tropical cyclones over the next week - one with a 30% chance of forming and another with a 60% chance. It is likely, however, that neither storm will reach land in the U.S.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 107.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from a monthly record high of 107.9 bcfd in July.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to ease to 16.1 bcfd on Thursday, having reached a 16-week high of 16.8 bcfd on Wednesday after Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas exited last week's outages and Venture Global LNG's VG.N Plaquemines plant in Louisiana pulled in a near-record 3.2 bcfd. That compares with a total daily LNG feedgas record high of 17.3 bcfd on April 9.

The LNG export gas flow reduction on Thursday was due to small declines at several plants including at Cheniere Energy's 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, to around 1.7 bcfd on Thursday from a three-week high of 2.4 bcfd on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.

Week ended Aug 1 Forecast

Week ended Jul 25 Actual

Year ago Aug 1

Five-year average Aug 1

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+17

+48

+21

+29

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,140

3,123

3,267

2,957

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+6.2%

+6.7%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.07

3.08

2.09

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.28

11.34

12.40

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.93

11.99

13.31

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

2

1

5

3

5

U.S. GFS CDDs

240

240

218

201

189

U.S. GFS TDDs

242

241

223

204

194

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

108.4

107.8

107.5

102.5

97.9

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.6

7.8

N/A

7.5

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

116.3

115.4

115.4

N/A

105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.9

2.5

2.5

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.9

7.3

7.1

N/A

6.4

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

14.7

15.6

15.6

12.9

10.2

U.S. Commercial

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

U.S. Residential

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.4

U.S. Power Plant

51.3

42.6

46.6

49.7

44.4

U.S. Industrial

22.1

22.2

22.2

21.8

21.9

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.4

2.1

2.2

2.1

3.1

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

89.3

80.4

84.4

87.2

82.8

Total U.S. Demand

112.8

105.8

109.6

N/A

95.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

77

77

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

78

78

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

80

80

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Aug 8

Week ended Aug 1

2024

2023

2022

Wind

8

7

11

10

11

Solar

8

7

5

4

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

43

45

42

41

38

Coal

17

19

16

17

21

Nuclear

18

16

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.02

2.98

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.71

2.70

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.24

3.28

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.64

2.49

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.79

2.69

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.95

2.94

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.45

3.40

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.98

1.06

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.37

0.26

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

50.78

51.92

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

45.79

45.83

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

33.82

32.67

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

58.95

58.84

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

44.10

42.48

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