US natgas prices edge up as near-record fuels air conditioning demand

ReutersJul 25, 2025 6:59 PM

Hottest days of summer coming early next week
Gas stockpiles seen at 7% above normal and growing
Gas output on track for monthly record high in July

By Scott DiSavino

July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Friday on forecasts for near-record heat early next week that should cause power generators to burn more gas to meet soaring air conditioning demand.

Limiting price gains were near-record output and lagging flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.6 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $3.11 per million British thermal units.

The contract moved out of technically oversold territory for the first time in three days. For the week, prices remained down about 13% after gaining about 8% last week.

Meteorologists forecast temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least August 9, with the hottest days of summer expected early next week.

Temperatures across the country will average around 82.4 degrees Fahrenheit (28.0 degrees Celsius) on July 28 and 82.9 F on July 29. If correct, that would top the summer's current hottest daily average of 80.3 F on June 24 but remain just shy of the daily average record high of 83.0 F on July 20, 2022, according to data from LSEG going back to 2018.

Homes and businesses in the U.S. Northeast have cranked up air conditioners, boosting spot power prices by 62% to around $141 per megawatt hour in New England and by 42% to $131 in the PJM West Hub in Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Some utilities, including some in New York, told customers participating in demand response programs to reduce energy consumption to save on bills and keep grids reliable during peak demand periods.

Despite the hotter-than-usual weather, record output has enabled energy firms to keep adding more gas than usual into storage. Analysts said gas stockpiles were currently around 6% above normal for this time of year and would likely keep growing. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 107.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.

On a daily basis, output is on track to drop to a preliminary two-week low of 106.5 bcfd on Friday since hitting a daily record high of 108.5 bcfd on July 18. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 106.1 bcfd this week to 110.0 bcfd next week before sliding to 107.6 bcfd in two weeks.

Forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.7 bcfd so far in July from 14.3 bcfd in June but still below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to drop to a one-month low of 15.2 bcfd on Friday, with a decline in gas flows to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas to a four-month low of 1.2 bcfd on Friday from 2.0 bcfd on Thursday and an average 2.1 bcfd over the prior seven days.

Cheniere notified customers that compressor maintenance would reduce gas flows through a pipe that supplies the plant by around 0.4 bcfd on July 24. Company officials had no further comment.

	Week ended Jul 25 Forecast	Week ended Jul 18 Actual	Year ago Jul 25	Five-year average Jul 25
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+42	+23	+18	+24
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,117	3,075	3,246	2,928
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.5%	+5.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.13	3.09	2.21	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.15	11.11	10.32	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.88	11.93	12.32	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	2	3	3	2	3
U.S. GFS CDDs	233	232	227	212	200
U.S. GFS TDDs	235	235	230	214	203

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.5	107.9	107.2	103.3	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.2	8.2	7.9	N/A	7.8
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	116.0	116.1	115.1	N/A	105.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.0	2.1	2.0	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.0	6.8	6.9	N/A	6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.4	15.2	15.1	12.0	10.0
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.7
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.5
U.S. Power Plant	47.9	44.2	48.1	48.2	48.1
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.3	22.3	21.8	21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.2	2.3	2.3	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	85.8	82.1	86.1	85.7	86.9
Total U.S. Demand	110.2	106.1	110.0	N/A	99.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Jul 25	Week ended Jul 18	2024	2023	2022
Wind	10	7	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	41	44	42	41	38
Coal	19	19	16	17	21
Nuclear	17	16	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.13	3.08
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.80	2.95
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.16	3.33
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.54	2.67
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.85	2.81
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	4.50	5.15
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.28	3.25
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.43	1.46
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.36	0.26

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	140.82	86.89
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	131.32	92.49
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	35.43	40.80
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	29.90	37.43
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	19.07	26.13

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