US natural gas price volatility dropped in H1 2025, EIA says
July 24 (Reuters) - The average volatility of the benchmark Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures price fell in the first half of 2025, signaling greater market stability as storage levels of the fuel close in on the prior five-year average, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a note on Thursday.
Quarterly average historical volatility dropped to 69% by mid-2025, compared with 81% in the fourth-quarter of last year.
"Since 2022, natural gas markets have experienced a series of extremes, including both unusually high and low inventory levels, which contributed to elevated price volatility," the agency said.
However, the market has recently seen more seasonally consistent price movements, the EIA said, suggesting that gas market dynamics have steadied amid record storage injections and more balanced inventories.
Meanwhile, analysts forecast that Henry Hub prices will rise to an average of $3.86 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2025, a three-year high, before climbing to $4.29 in 2026.
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