CSU decreases Atlantic hurricane season forecast to 16 named storms, eight hurricanes

By Mia MacGregor

July 9 - (The Insurer) - Colorado State University has decreased its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, now predicting slightly above-normal activity amid high levels of Caribbean wind shear, a condition typically linked to reduced hurricane activity.

In its July 9 update, CSU projected 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes for the season, slightly exceeding the long-term averages.

The forecast also indicates slightly above-average probabilities for major hurricanes striking the continental U.S. and Caribbean.

CSU estimates a 48% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline, with a 25% chance for the East Coast and 31% for the Gulf Coast.

The Caribbean faces a 53% likelihood of major hurricane activity.

The forecast reflects ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific and slightly warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic, both of which tend to favor hurricane formation and intensification.

Earlier forecasts issued on April 3 and June 11 called for an above-normal season, predicting 17 named storms and nine hurricanes between June 1 and November 30.

CSU's updated forecast follows Tropical Storm Risk on Tuesday slightly reducing its forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity. TSR now expects 15 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.