US natgas prices rise ahead of federal storage report

ReutersJul 3, 2025 2:08 PM

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

July 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday as hotter mid-July forecasts were expected to increase demand for air-conditioning and gas-fired power, while LNG terminals coming back online after spring maintenance were also expected to boost exports.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) traded 4.8 cents, or 1.4% higher, at $3.54 per million British thermal units by 09:49 a.m. EDT (1349 GMT).

The price increase preceded the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report, due at 10:30 a.m. ET, that is expected to show energy firms last week injected more gas into storage for a 11th week in a row. Analysts forecast energy firms added 53 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended June 27.

That compares with an injection of 35 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2020-2024) average increase of 61 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

"Power burns are starting to get some strength here due to seasonal factors. We've got some hot weather across the country," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.

"We just came out of a period of LNG maintenance. So the stronger export demand...stronger Mexican exports and stronger LNG exports are also contributing to demand."

The price recovery is likely driven by short-covering ahead of the U.S. storage report and the long holiday weekend, while any bullish storage surprise or slight uptick in cooling demand should potentially trigger sharp price volatility in the natural gas market, Di Dona added.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, slightly up from 106.4 bcfd in June, when spring pipeline maintenance had temporarily curbed production.

LSEG estimated 237 total degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 206 estimated on Wednesday. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, increased to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day for the current week from 103.7 bcfd in the prior week.

The normal level for this time of year is 174 TDDs. Total degree days measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above or below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), to estimate demand to cool or heat homes and businesses.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.4 bcfd in July so far, up from 14.4 bcfd in June, but down from a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. The feedgas average for July was slightly up from June, as units at some LNG plants returned from maintenance reductions.

Meanwhile, Golden Pass LNG, which is owned by Exxon Mobil XOM.N and QatarEnergy, has asked U.S. regulators for permission to re-export liquefied natural gas from October 1, as the export plant nears production after previous delays.

The company said it plans to import an LNG cargo to cool down its Texas-based export facility, which is still under construction. Cooling down the plant is typically the final step before it begins producing LNG.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices traded in a narrow range on Thursday due to stable supply from Norway and from liquefied natural gas, while demand from the power sector softened after the end of the heatwave. NG/EU

	Week ended Jun 27 Forecast	Week ended Jun 20 Actual	Year ago Jun 27	Five-year averageJun 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+51	+96	+35	+61
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,949	2,898	3,129	2,780
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.1%	+6.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.51	3.41	2.81	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.92	10.93	10.87	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	13.17	13.11	12.30	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	5	4	1	3	4
U.S. GFS CDDs	232	202	219	181	170
U.S. GFS TDDs	237	206	220	184	174

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	106.9	107.3	106.9	103.0	96.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.9	8.3	7.9	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.9	115.6	114.8	N/A	104.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.8	1.9	2.1	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	5.9	7.2	6.6	N/A	6.3
U.S. LNG Exports	14.2	14.9	15.1	12.7	9.1
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.4	4.3	4.4	4.8
U.S. Residential	3.8	3.6	3.7	3.7	4.3
U.S. Power Plant	43.7	44.8	44.0	44.2	38.0
U.S. Industrial	22.3	22.2	22.2	21.7	21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.1	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	81.9	82.6	81.8	81.4	76.8
Total U.S. Demand	103.7	106.6	105.6	N/A	88.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day% of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024% of Normal Actual	2023% of Normal Actual	2022% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	76	76	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	79	79	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended July 4	Week ended Jun 27	2024	2023	2022
Wind	6	10	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	42	42	41	38
Coal	19	19	16	17	21
Nuclear	17	16	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.10	3.14
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.88	2.82
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.90	3.57
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.69	2.55
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.82	2.85
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.00	3.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.69	3.91
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	2.05	2.06
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.13	1.01

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	56.63	56.63
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	57.57	57.57
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	39.76	39.76
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	33.18	33.18
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	19.29	19.29

text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

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