CTAs will continue to sell crude and industrial metals (x-copper) in most scenarios for prices by this time next week. In the imminent term, CTA selling activity will continue to weigh on price action into the OPEC meeting, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Energy demand remains resilient
"While markets will struggle to absorb additional barrels from OPEC+, energy demand remains resilient, US shale production is peaking, Venezuelan export licenses have expired, and geopolitical risks surrounding Iran remain elevated— all of which will likely act as a shock absorber to lower prices for the time being."
"Beyond the seasonally strong summer months, however, OPEC exports should rise further and pressure global crude markets without a subsequent disruption to supply. The path to sustainably higher prices remains extremely narrow, and while speculative positioning is bearish, it is not currently vulnerable to a squeeze."
Related Articles
Carnival’s Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Can Strong Demand and Celebration Key Drive Valuation Higher?
TradingKey - Fueled by robust consumer demand for cruise travel, Carnival has hit all-time highs in several key metrics, including revenue, yield, and customer deposits. Its stock has performed strongly in 2025, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 20% and a nearly 70% increase over the past 12 months
TikTok US Deal: Business before Politics
TradingKey - Just like how Facebook took over the world by storm in the late 2000s, TikTok took over the world in the early 2020s. The catalyst for TikTok’s rise was the COVID-19 pandemic, which kept people at home with little to do
U.S. August PCE Preview: Four-Run PCE Bounce Challenges the Fed’s Three-Cut Plan
TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday, September 26, with markets closely watching how much tariff pass-through effects have influenced inflation.
Fed Officials Cool Hopes for Rate Cuts.Will Gold Price Rally Toward the $4,000 Threshold?
TradingKey - Since the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut last week, market sentiment on future easing has turned divergent, with several Fed officials recently tempering expectations for additional cuts.
U.S. August PCE: Inflation Remains the Market's Greatest Risk
Our baseline forecast anticipates sustained asset price increases. However, if inflation surpasses market expectations in the coming months, it could hinder further rate cuts and pose the greatest risk to financial markets.
