By Scott DiSavino
May 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday as forecasts for less demand than previously expected this week offset forecasts for more demand next week.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.5 cents, or 1.0%, from where the July contract closed on Wednesday to settle at $3.522 per million British thermal units.
Even though prices for the July contract were down, the front-month was still up about 10% from where the June contract expired when it was the front-month on Wednesday. That was also the highest close for the front month since May 13.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 101 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended May 23.
In other news, U.S. energy company Williams Cos WMB.N said it is working with federal and state regulators to revive two previously canceled natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New York - the Northeast Supply Enhancement and Constitution Pipeline.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary three-week low of 104.3 bcfd on Thursday, down from 104.7 bcfd on Wednesday. The decline, however, was less than LSEG projected on Wednesday. Analysts have said preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Energy traders said output reductions this month were primarily due to normal spring maintenance on gas pipelines, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast. Kinder Morgan said it exchanged a turbine at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26.
Energy firms usually work on gas pipes when demand is low in the spring and autumn.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 13.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 95.4 bcfd this week to 96.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday, while its forecast for next week was higher.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.
The LNG feedgas decline this month was mostly due to maintenance at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas and Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana, and a few brief reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas, including most recently on May 28.
Looking ahead, energy traders said they expect LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June with Cheniere planning about three weeks of maintenance on liquefaction trains at Sabine around June 2-23.
| Week ended May 23 Actual | Week ended May 16 Actual | Year ago May 23 | Five-year average May 23 |
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +101 | +120 | +84 | +98 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,476 | 2,375 | 2,792 | 2,382 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +3.9% | +3.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.56 | 3.56 | 2.42 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.95 | 12.16 | 10.12 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.47 | 12.40 | 11.10 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 15 | 19 | 27 | 39 | 29 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 151 | 146 | 136 | 125 | 119 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 166 | 165 | 163 | 164 | 148 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 105.5 | 105.3 | 105.1 | 101.7 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | N/A | 7.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.1 | 113.2 | 112.1 | N/A | 103.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | N/A | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.6 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 10.4 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.7 |
U.S. Residential | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 6.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.1 | 31.6 | 33.5 | 34.9 | 29.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.6 | 22.4 | 22.2 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 74.4 | 71.0 | 71.6 | 72.7 | 71.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.7 | 95.4 | 96.4 | N/A | 90.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A is Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 82 | 82 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 82 | 82 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 83 | 83 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
| Week ended May 30 | Week ended May 23 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
Wind | 8 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 32 | 33 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day |
|
|
|
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.09 | 3.20 |
|
|
|
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.95 | 1.87 |
|
|
|
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.24 | 3.08 |
|
|
|
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.85 | 1.75 |
|
|
|
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.90 | 2.88 |
|
|
|
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.90 | 2.90 |
|
| |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.63 | 2.55 |
|
|
|
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.89 | 1.52 |
|
|
|
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.35 | 1.44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day |
|
|
|
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 40.07 | 38.25 |
|
|
|
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 40.64 | 39.19 |
|
|
|
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 16.97 | 50.29 |
|
| |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 40.50 | 37.82 |
|
|
|
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 23.66 | 19.35 |
|
|
|
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C