TSR becomes latest agency to forecast above-average hurricane season

By Scott Vincent

May 23 - (The Insurer) - London-based Tropical Storm Risk has become the latest forecaster to predict above-average activity during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1.

TSR said on Friday that it expects activity to be around 25% above the 1991-2020 average, driven by expectations for sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean to be above average in August and September.

TSR said it now forecasts 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater intensity during this year’s Atlantic season.

This compares with its April forecast of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

TSR’s update follows the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s official forecast on Thursday, which also points to above-average activity.

The NOAA forecast expects between 13 and 19 named storms, of which six to 10 will become hurricanes. Between three and five of these are expected to reach Category 3 or higher intensity.

Colorado State University has yet to update its April forecast, which expected 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic during the 2025 season.