US natgas prices edge up on daily output drop ahead of storage report

ReutersMay 1, 2025 1:19 PM

U.S. LNG export feedgas hit record high in April
U.S. gas output hit record high in April
U.S. gas storage about even with five-year average

By Scott DiSavino

May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Thursday on a drop in output over the past few days and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.2 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.358 per million British thermal units at 8:52 a.m. EDT (1252 GMT).

That price increase came ahead of a federal report expected to show that last week's storage build was much bigger than usual because mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low.

Analysts projected utilities added 107 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 25.

If correct, the build would move the amount of gas in storage to near normal levels for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles have been below normal since mid-January as utilities pulled a record 1.013 bcf of gas from storage in January to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold this winter.

Some analysts said mild weather and record output so far this spring could allow energy firms to add record amounts of gas into storage in May, breaking the all-time monthly injection high of 494 bcf set in May 2015.

Looking ahead, the premium of futures for November 2025 over October 2025 NGV25-X25 rose to a record high.

The industry uses the March-April NGH26-J26 and October-November spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts since March is the last month of the winter heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a record 105.8 billion cubic feet per day in April, up from the prior monthly all-time high of 105.6 bcfd in March.

On a daily basis, gas output was on track to drop by 3.5 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary two-month low of 102.0 bcfd on Thursday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data - especially first of the month preliminary data - is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 16.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 98.5 bcfd this week to 95.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday, while its forecast for next week was higher.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants operating in the U.S. climbed to a record 16.0 bcfd in April, up from the prior monthly all-time high of 15.8 bcfd in March on rising flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana.

The United States became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a nine-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and near an 11-month low of around $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Apr 25 Forecast	Week ended Apr 18 Actual	Year ago Apr 25	Five-year average Apr 25
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+107	+88	+64	+58
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,041	1,934	2,476	2,036
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+0.2%	-2.2%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.42	3.33	2.42	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.56	10.66	10.12	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.22	11.22	11.10	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	54	55	62	96	88
U.S. GFS CDDs	68	67	72	60	58
U.S. GFS TDDs	122	122	134	156	147

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.0	104.5	105.0	99.8	96.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.3	7.5	7.2	N/A	7.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.3	112.0	112.1	N/A	103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.5	2.5	2.4	N/A	2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.9	7.1	6.8	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Exports	15.5	15.5	15.3	12.4	10.4
U.S. Commercial	6.3	6.0	5.6	5.7	5.7
U.S. Residential	7.4	6.9	6.1	6.0	6.6
U.S. Power Plant	30.2	31.0	30.0	33.3	29.7
U.S. Industrial	22.4	22.3	22.4	21.8	21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.3	5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	1.9	2.0	2.6
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	73.6	73.4	71.3	74.2	71.4
Total U.S. Demand	98.6	98.5	95.8	N/A	90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	85	85	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	85	85	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	86	86	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended May 2	Week ended Apr 25	2024	2023	2022
Wind	16	13	11	10	11
Solar	8	8	5	4	3
Hydro	7	8	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	36	36	42	41	38
Coal	14	15	16	17	21
Nuclear	18	19	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.12	3.17
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.31	2.30
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.57	2.50
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.38	2.26
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.85	2.89
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.66	2.61
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.58	2.80
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.52	1.82
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.50	1.54

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	37.13	37.38
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	44.87	48.85
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	46.97	39.23
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	33.30	26.00
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	18.53	14.30

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.