COLUMN-By the numbers: Mixed outlook for key US ag exports in 2025-26: Braun

By Karen Braun

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. exporters have racked up robust corn volumes following last year’s bountiful harvest.

They have been less successful with soybeans and wheat in the current 2024-25 season as they continue battling growing global competition.

But almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely near multi-year lows.

Truthfully, this is not yet a huge problem since the typical buying periods for next season’s supplies are mostly still in the future.

But with the rising uncertainty surrounding the United States and its trading partners, these numbers will be key to watch in the coming months as the geopolitical dust begins to settle.

The 2025-26 U.S. marketing years are set to begin on June 1 for wheat, August 1 for cotton, September 1 for corn, soybeans and sorghum, and October 1 for soybean products.

SOYBEANS

U.S. exporters sold about 182,000 metric tons of soybeans for 2025-26 in the week ended April 10, their biggest weekly volume to date. However, total new-crop sales stand around 460,000 tons, an 18-year low for the date. None of those are explicitly to China.

Last year, top customer China began buying new-crop U.S. beans in July, its latest start since 2005. This year could be similar or worse with Brazil’s massive export lineup and slight delay to its season, meaning those beans could encroach on the typical U.S. season that starts in September.

New-crop U.S. soybean sales typically begin trickling in around now, with the bigger ones arriving in June or July depending on how concerned buyers are about supplies.

CORN
U.S. corn exports in 2024-25 are projected to be the second-best on record. However, sales for 2025-26 stand just below 2 million tons, the second-lowest for the date since 2012, last year being the lowest.

But that’s not necessarily a red flag. A year ago, sales for 2024-25 were at 14-year lows before landing massive volumes in both August and October, with a strong, steady stream ever since.

In a typical year, new-crop U.S. corn sales start accelerating in July.

WHEAT

As of April 10, just 1.45 million tons of U.S. wheat had been sold for export in 2025-26. That is the date’s third-lowest volume since 2012, behind 2023 and 2018.

Strong sales last June helped support 2024-25 exports, which are now predicted to reach four-year highs, but the clock is ticking for 2025-26. New-crop sales typically begin in February and increasingly rise through May.

COTTON

Some 1.1 million running bales of U.S. cotton were on the books for 2025-26 as of April 10, a nine-year low for the date. That checks out since 2024-25 exports are set for nine-year lows.

However, the U.S. Department of Agriculture in February forecast 2025-26 U.S. cotton exports to jump 18% on the year to a four-year high. Normally, new-crop cotton export sales begin growing steadily from March through July.

China normally accounts for roughly 30% of annual U.S. cotton exports, which poses a potential problem for U.S. exporters given recent trade relations.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Expanding soybean-processing capacity has lifted U.S. soybean meal exports to record levels in 2024-25. But importers aren’t feeling pressure yet to load up for next year.

Just 131,000 tons have been sold so far for 2025-26, the date’s second-smallest volume since 2009. New-crop soymeal sales usually begin rolling in slowly right about now with a notable uptick come late July or August.

SOYBEAN OIL

Soybean oil bucks the trend. U.S. exporters as of April 10 had sold 11,800 tons of the vegoil for export in 2025-26, a record high for the date.

However, that volume accounts for roughly 1% of annual soyoil exports. Bigger new-crop volumes usually arrive at various points between May and September.

High prices for competing global vegoils have lifted 2024-25 U.S. soyoil export sales to 14-year highs for the date, and USDA will likely project another strong U.S. program in 2025-26.

SORGHUM

China is the primary buyer of U.S. grain sorghum, so like soybeans, the outlook here might not be so great. USDA already sees 2024-25 U.S. sorghum exports at six-year lows, and the volumes could be just as slim in 2025-26.

As of April 10, U.S. sorghum sales for 2024-25 were the second-lightest since 2013, and there were virtually no 2025-26 bookings yet. July-August is the normal time frame for new-crop sales to begin.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.