TSR forecasts 2025 hurricane activity in line with 30-year norm

By Isha Marathe

April 7 - (The Insurer) - Tropical Storm Risk anticipates a 2025 hurricane season similar to the 1991 to 2020 climate norm, with tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters expected to be near or slightly above normal by September 2025, with neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions.

The hurricane season typically ranges from June 1 to November 30.

On Monday, TSR forecasted 14 named tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, it anticipates four tropical storms and two hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S.

The 30-year norm for 1991 to 2020 was 14.4 tropical storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 intense hurricanes.

The 2025 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, a metric used to express the energy a hurricane cyclone uses during its lifetime, has a 30% probability of being upper tercile (>156), a 47% likelihood of being middle tercile (75 to 156) and a 24% chance of being lower tercile, TSR said.

"There is moderate confidence that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane activity season will be near-normal based on the 1991-2020 climatology although significant uncertainties remain," TSR said.

"Sea surface temperature anomalies in the (Main Development Region) have decreased over the last three months and are currently near-normal. The reason for this decrease is not currently understood and is largely confined to the eastern portion of the MDR."

There is reasonable confidence for neutral ENSO conditions to be in place through summer and autumn implying ENSO is unlikely to be a significant factor in 2025. Additionally, Caribbean Sea surface temperature anomalies and the ENSO state are currently most likely to be in a state that has only a small influence on the trade wind speed at this lead time, TSR found.

"Other factors which are impossible to predict, such as the strength and frequency of Saharan air outbreaks, and the frequency of tropical upper tropospheric troughs across the tropical Atlantic, both of which inhibit hurricane activity, are not accounted for," TSR said.

On April 3, Colorado State University forecasted an "above average" hurricane season for 2025, 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes anticipated.