FACTBOX-Goldman Sachs cuts oil forecasts for 2025, 2026 on tariff worries, OPEC+ supply

April 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs reduced its Brent and WTI oil forecasts for 2025 and 2026 on the expectation of higher OPEC+ supply and the risk of an escalating trade conflict will trigger a global recession, denting demand, the bank said in note on Thursday.

The bank dropped its 2025 average forecasts for Brent and WTI to $69 and $66 per barrel respectively, down from $73 and $69. For 2026, it trimmed its Brent forecast by 8.8% to $62 a barrel, and WTI by 4.8% to $59.

China intensified the global trade conflict on Friday by imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs, causing crude prices to drop by 8%, nearing their lowest levels since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided on Thursday to advance its plan to phase out oil output cuts by increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, causing oil prices to extend earlier losses.

Goldman Sachs expects oil demand to grow by only 0.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 0.7 million barrels a day in 2026, compared to the previous forecast of 0.9 mbd, contributing to its oil price downgrade.

On Friday, HSBC said its updated supply and demand model suggested a surplus of 0.3 mbd in 2025 (versus 0.2 mbd previously), and an unchanged 1.2 mbd surplus in 2026. The bank also reiterated its Brent forecasts at $73 a barrel in 2025 and $70 in 2026.

The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2025 and 2026 average prices for Brent and WTI (in $ per barrel):

indicates end-of-period forecast

# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision

For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters' latest monthly poll, see OILPOLL