TECHNICALS-CBOT soybeans to consolidate in $9.44 to $11.07-1/4 range in Q2

SINGAPORE, April 3 (Reuters) - The CBOT soybean first-month contract Sc1 is expected to consolidate further in the range of $9.44 to $11.07-1/4 per bushel in the second quarter of 2025.

The range is formed by the 61.8% and the 50% retracements on the uptrend from $4.15-1/2 to $17.99. The support at $9.44 is expected to be very strong, as it is strengthened by similar support established by a long-term trendline.

Even though these support levels have not been able to trigger decent bounces, to break below them does not seem to be an easy task for the market.

The contract may approach $9.44 again, but will most likely bounce toward $11.07-1/4 thereafter. In the meantime, there is no indication on the monthly chart that the contract would break $11.07-1/4 and rise to $12.70-1/2.

A break below $9.44 could open the way towards $7.42. To reveal the possible chart pattern of the following consolidation, it is necessary to turn to the daily chart.

A short uptrend has been developing within a small channel. Whether this trend could extend a lot will largely depend on the performance of the market around support at $9.66-1/2.

A stabilization of the price around this level would increase the chance of the uptrend extending, while a break below it could confirm a bearish flag which suggests a target of $7.55, supposing the flag pole developed around $12.42.

A break above $10.81 could lead to a gain into the $11.83-1/4 to $12.42 range.

Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. Views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult their own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to wang.tao@tr.com.