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EUROPE GAS-Prices down on mild weather as market monitors Ukraine ceasefire talks

ReutersMar 25, 2025 9:16 AM

- Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged lower on Tuesday morning as mild weather curbed demand and as the market monitored the U.S.-led talks in Saudi Arabia to end the war in Ukraine.

The Dutch front-month contract TRNLTTFMc1 was down by 0.53 euro to 41.75 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $13.35/mmBtu, by 0900 GMT, LSEG data showed.

The British front-month contract TRGBNBPMc1 was down 0.50 pence at 102.50p/therm.

Temperatures across north-west Europe are trending 0.1-0.2 degrees Celsius to the milder side and are expected in a range between 7 and 9C, slightly above normal, LSEG data showed.

Wind power generation is slowly rising towards the weekend and solar generation should be strongest in the next two weeks during March 27 and 28, said LSEG analyst Ulrich Weber.

"Much of the anticipation over progress of peace talks between the U.S., Russia and Ukraine held in Saudi Arabia is the key focus," consultancy Auxilione said in a morning note.

Ukrainian and U.S. delegations are scheduled to meet on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia following Russia-U.S. talks there a day earlier on a limited Black Sea ceasefire proposal that Washington hopes will open the way for broader peace negotiations.

Day-long talks on Monday in Saudi Arabia between Russian and U.S. officials were portrayed by Washington as a step in President Donald Trump's effort to end the three-year-old war.

North Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have slightly declined to $13.30 per mmBtu, but Europe is still able to attract LNG.

However, a significant fall in EU gas prices could reverse the direction of the arbitrage, as it is not certain that Asian LNG buyers will reduce their bids by the same amount, analysts at Engie's EnergyScan said.

"In other words, the competition between Europe and Asia to attract LNG cargoes is here to stay. But fortunately for Europe, Asian buyers are not prepared to buy LNG at any price," they added.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 edged down by 0.73 euro to 70.79 euros a metric ton.

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