Goldman Sachs Sees Non-OPEC+ Production Growth Decreasing Over 12 Months With Decline in Brent Prices

March 24 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:

• SEES NON-OPEC+ PRODUCTION GROWTH DECREASES BY 0.3MB/D OVER 12 MONTHS FOR EACH $10/BBL OIL PRICE DECLINE WITH BRENT >$70/BBL, WITH THIS RESPONSE INCREASING TO 0.65MB/D WITH BRENT AT $50-70/BBL

• SAYS IT ESTIMATES 2026 NON-OPEC+ SUPPLY GROWTH TO FALL FROM 1.05MB/D TO 0.6MB/D WITH CAL26 BRENT PRICES AT $60/BBL AND TO -0.1MB/D AT $50/BBL

• SAYS WITH RECESSION RISKS RISING AND ELEVATED SPARE CAPACITY, MEDIUM TERM RISKS TO PRICE FORECAST REMAIN TO THE DOWNSIDE

• SAYS U.S. DRIVES MOST OF SUPPLY ELASTICITY, WHERE SHALE OIL PRODUCTION GROWTH DECREASES BY 0.2MB/D OVER 12 MONTHS PER $10/BBL PRICE DROP WITH BRENT >$70/BBL, WITH THIS DRAG RISING TO 0.5MB/D PER $10 WITH BRENT AT $50-70

• SAYS AS PRICES DROP FURTHER TO WELL-HEAD VARIABLE COSTS, LARGE PRODUCTION SHUT-INS ARE POSSIBLE