US natural gas prices up on record flows to LNG export plants, cooler weather forecasts

ReutersMar 18, 2025 6:51 PM

US gas output on track to hit record high in March
US LNG export feedgas set to hit record high in March

By Scott DiSavino

March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday on record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a drop in daily output and forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand than previously expected next week.

That rise in demand should increase the amount of gas utilities pull from storage next week. Gas stockpiles were currently around 12% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS] NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.4 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $4.052 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest level since February 28.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 2.7 bcfd to a preliminary three-week low of 104.1 bcfd on Tuesday. Traders noted preliminary data is often updated later in the day.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 2.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 107.4 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a one-week low of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a three-month low of $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Mar 14 Forecast	Week ended Mar 7 Actual	Year ago Mar 14	Five-year average Mar 14
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-19	-62	+5	-31
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,679	1,698	2,331	1,897
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-11.5	-11.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.98	4.02	1.75	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	13.15	13.19	8.54	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	13.18	13.64	8.95	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	240	229	255	246	248
U.S. GFS CDDs	19	18	10	20	16
U.S. GFS TDDs	259	247	265	266	264

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	105.7	106.1	106.0	101.6	97.5
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.1	8.8	9.3	N/A	7.8
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	114.7	114.9	115.3	N/A	105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.8	4.1	4.1	N/A	3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.2	6.0	6.2	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Exports	15.5	16.1	15.9	13.1	11.8
U.S. Commercial	11.2	10.4	11.4	11.9	11.8
U.S. Residential	17.2	15.7	16.8	17.7	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	25.9	24.1	24.4	30.8	27.5
U.S. Industrial	23.7	23.5	24.1	24.5	23.8
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.2	2.2	2.5	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	85.6	81.2	84.4	92.7	90.1
Total U.S. Demand	111.1	107.4	110.5	N/A	110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	93	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	89	90	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	90	91	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Mar 21	Week ended Mar 14	2024	2023	2022
Wind	16	15	11	10	11
Solar	6	7	5	4	3
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	34	34	42	41	38
Coal	14	16	16	17	21
Nuclear	21	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	4.15	3.89
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.25	2.79
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.86	3.70
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.09	3.72
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.32	3.20
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.42	3.00
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.78	3.82
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.53	-0.79
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.61	1.62

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	41.54	41.07
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	49.44	45.70
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	40.26	38.10
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	14.36	23.88
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	4.83	24.53

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