US natgas down over 3%, set for weekly loss on milder weather, lower demand view

ReutersMar 14, 2025 2:16 PM

By Anmol Choubey

March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Friday and were headed for a weekly loss, weighed down by forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 13 cents, or 3.2%, at $3.98 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 09:31 a.m. EDT. The contract is down 8.7% for this week so far.

"We're not seeing any change on the supply side, there was some tariff news this week but supply has been pretty steady. The real big swing here has just been from the demand side, and that's largely due to weather model moderation," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.

Financial firm LSEG estimated there would be 185 heating degree days over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, down from the 205 HDDs estimated on Thursday. The normal level is 254 HDDs for this time of year.

LSEG has forecast that average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will slightly rise from 106.3 billion cubic feet per day this week to 107.8 bcfd next week.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants has risen to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in March, matching the record high hit in February.

Gas prices rose more than 14% last week on record flows to LNG plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4.

In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas demand, including exports, and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, again including exports. Some of those power and gas exports returned to Canada.

Canadian gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to an average of 8.8 bcfd since Trump's tariffs were announced, down from an average of 9.8 bcfd during the prior 11-day period from February 21 to March 3, according to LSEG data.

That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023).

Meanwhile, Dutch and British gas prices continued to fall amid expectations of high wind power output and on talk of a possible ceasefire to the conflict in Ukraine.NG/EU

	Week ended March 7 Actual	Week ended Feb 28 Actual	Year ago March 7	Five-year average March 7
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-62	-80	-19	-56
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,698	1,760	2,326	1,928
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-11.9%	-11.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.11	4.08	1.75	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	-	13.63	8.54	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	-	-	8.95	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	185	205	254	254	265
U.S. GFS CDDs	11	12	9	19	12
U.S. GFS TDDs	196	217	263	273	277

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	105.6	105.3	104.9	-	97.5
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.1	9.1	9.4	N/A	7.8
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	114.7	114.3	114.3	N/A	105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.8	3.9	3.9	N/A	3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.1	6.3	6.3	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Exports	15.5	15.6	15.6	-	11.8
U.S. Commercial	11.2	10.4	10.8	-	11.8
U.S. Residential	17.2	15.7	16.1	-	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	25.8	23.4	24.0	-	27.5
U.S. Industrial	23.7	23.6	23.7	-	23.8
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.2	5.2	5.2	-	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.5	2.1	2.2	-	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	-	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	85.5	80.5	82.0	-	90.1
Total U.S. Demand	110.9	106.3	107.8	N/A	110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	91	89	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	87	87	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	89	88	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended March 14	Week ended March 7	2024	2023	2022
Wind	15	14	11	10	11
Solar	7	6	5	4	3
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	34	35	42	41	38
Coal	16	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.89	4.18
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.33	3.63
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.71	3.95
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.17	3.39
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.26	3.45
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.42	4
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.94	3.93
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.33	1.08
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	-	-

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	41.07	51.39
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	46.84	47.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	39.57	36.26
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	18.71	29.00
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	25.00	33.48

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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