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GRAINS-Soybeans, corn set for weekly losses on trade war disruptions

ReutersMar 14, 2025 12:44 AM

- Chicago soybean and corn futures inched lower on Friday, with both commodities on track for weekly losses, as concerns over trade conflicts disrupting trade flows and abundant South American supplies weighed on prices.

Wheat eased, but the market is set for a weekly gain amid expectations of lower exports from Russia.

FUNDAMENTALS

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 was down 0.4% at $10.06-3/4 a bushel, as of 0015 GMT, and corn Cv1 gave up nearly 1% to $4.61 a bushel.

Wheat Wv1 shed 0.4% to $5.60-1/2 a bushel.

Grain markets faced pressure this week following the implementation of revised U.S. tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, which prompted the European Union and Canada to announce retaliatory duties on a range of U.S. goods.

The EU package, which could see the bloc reintroduce a 25% duty on U.S. corn and potentially add a tariff on U.S. soybeans, added to concerns about disruption to U.S. exports caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff offensive.

For the week, soybeans and corn have lost close to 2%, while wheat has gained 1.5%.

There is likely to be support for soybeans and corn markets, given the lower estimates for output in key supplier Argentina.

Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop is now estimated at 46.5 million metric tons, down from the 47.5 million tons previously expected, according to a forecast from the Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday.

The exchange also lowered its outlook for the 2024/25 corn harvest to 44.5 million tons, from a prior 46 million tons.

Russia's IKAR consultancy said on Thursday that it had cut its baseline 2024/25 wheat export forecast to around 41 million tons from 42.5 million tons.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, wheat, soymeal and soybean futures contracts on Thursday, traders said. Funds were net sellers of soyoil futures, traders said. COMFUND/CBT

MARKET NEWS

Global equities sank with the S&P 500 confirming it was in a correction while U.S. Treasury prices rose as investors fled for safer assets as they worried that global trade tensions would boost inflation and slow growth after Trump's latest tariff threats. MKTS/GLOB

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0700 UK GDP Est 3M/3M, GDP Estimate MM, YY January

0700 UK Services MM, YY January

0700 UK Manufacturing Output January

0745 France CPI (EU Norm) Final MM, YY February

0745 France CPI NSA YY, MM February

1100 EU Reserve Assets Total February

1400 US U Mich Sentiment Prelim March

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