Canadian farmers to boost wheat and cut canola, Statistics Canada says

By Ed White

WINNIPEG, Manitoba, March 12 (Reuters) - Canadian farmers intend to plant more wheat, corn, oats and peas in 2025 than they did last year and cut canola, soybeans, barley and lentils, Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday.

However, farmers' commitment to those planting plans is more up-in-the-air than ever before, say some farmers and analysts, because of the tariff threats being aimed at Canada by major trading partners.

"If it's not the U.S., it's China," said Starbuck, Manitoba farmer Chuck Fossay.

"We're going to wait and see, and if we're going to take acres out of canola it'll be closer to May 1."

The survey was conducted between December 13, 2024 and January 17, 2025, before Trump's tariff talk heated up and roughly two months before China announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products on Saturday.

StatsCan predicted farmers will plant 21.6 million acres of canola, 27.5 million acres of wheat, 6.4 million acres of durum, 3.0 million acres of oats, 6.3 million acres of barley, 4.2 million acres of lentils and 3.5 million acres of peas.

Grain traders surveyed by Reuters estimated fewer acres than StatsCan of canola, peas, wheat and durum, about the same as the agency of corn and spring wheat, and more barley and oats.

Canada's canola markets are being hammered by tariff threats and impositions by both U.S. and Chinese governments, undermining confidence in farmers, exporters and processors that crops grown or processed in Canada will be able to reach their number one and two markets.

China said it plans to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal, as well as Canadian peas, on March 20. The U.S. Trump administration has imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian products and then postponed some of them.

On March 12, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe told reporters the combination of U.S. and Chinese tariffs on canola "will decimate the industry in Saskatchewan immediately, in a matter of a number of weeks not months."

He said the price impact of tariffs is "shutting down the opportunity for Saskatchewan agricultural producers to grow the most profitable crop we've had access to growing."

The Statistics Canada seeding intentions results suggest farmers might be looking to grow cheaper crops because of the market risks.

Analyst Lawrence Klusa of Seges Markets has been questioning how farmers might change their planting plans due to tariff risks.

"Trying to guess what the tariff situation will be six months from now is pretty difficult," said Klusa.

($1 = 1.4412 Canadian dollars)