US natgas prices climb 2% to 26-month high on Canada tariffs worries, record LNG flows

By Scott DiSavino

March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a fresh 26-month high on Wednesday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and forecasts for higher demand this week than previously expected.

Traders said prices also gained support on worries gas exports from Canada to the U.S. could decline due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico that took effect on Tuesday.

In addition to possible lower gas exports from Canada, U.S. gas prices were also gaining some support on worries Canada could cut exports of electricity to the U.S. The U.S. is a net importer of power from Canada, so any decline in power exports would mean U.S. generators would have to produce more power.

And, since around 43% of U.S. power comes from gas, traders expect generators would likely burn more gas to produce that power.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.0 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $4.450 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2022 for a second day in a row.

Prices rose despite near-record output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected and mild weather through late-March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage in coming weeks.

Extreme cold weather earlier this year, however, has already forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

A 16% increase in U.S. gas futures so far this week coupled with a 15% drop in oil futures CLc1 over the past seven weeks cut the oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, to 15 to 1, the lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas.

So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 19 times over gas. That compares with 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019-2023).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 104.7 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to decline by 2.2 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary one-week low of 104.7 bcfd on Wednesday, down from a three-week high of 106.5 bcfd on February 28. That compares with an all-time daily high of 106.7 on February 6.

In the import market, the U.S. was on track to pull in around 8.2 bcfd of gas from Canada on Wednesday, down from 8.3 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 9.8 bcfd during the 11 days (February 21-March 3) before the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023).

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 20.

With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 119.4 bcfd this week to 111.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants held at an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in March, the same as February's record high, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enters service.

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

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NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

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NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C