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Citi Sees Brent Towards $60/bbl Over Next 3-Months

ReutersMar 4, 2025 7:56 PM

- CITI RESEARCH:

  • SAYS IT IS FUNDAMENTALLY BEARISH ON OIL BECAUSE NON-OPEC+ SUPPLY GROWTH LOOKS SET TO OFFSET GLOBAL DEMAND GROWTH THIS YEAR

  • SAYS MONDAY'S OPEC+ DECISION TO START INCREASING PRODUCTION AGAIN IS A MATERIALLY BEARISH DEVELOPMENT FOR OIL

  • SAYS TARGETING A MOVE IN BRENT TOWARDS $60/BBL OVER NEXT 3-MONTHS

  • SAYS INCREASING OUTPUT DUE TO PRESSURE FROM THE US ADMINISTRATION, RATHER THAN DUE TO SHORTAGE OF OIL, COULD BE MORE DESTABILIZING FOR OIL PRICES AFTER OPEC+ ANNOUNCEMENT

  • SAYS THE PROBABILITY OF AN IRAN ESCALATION MAY NOW ALSO BE LOWER AND UKRAINE CEASE FIRE, AS WELL AS PLANS FOR TAX CUTS OF US ENERGY COMPANIES TO BOOST OUTPUT, WOULD ALSO ADD TO DOWNSIDE

  • SAYS "THE RISK OF A US/IRAN ESCALATION WAS KEEPING US OUT OF THIS TRADE. A TAIL SCENARIO COULD SEE A LOSS OF UP TO 1MB/D BEFORE A DEAL IS ULTIMATELY MADE"

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