Copper Tariffs May Reach 25%, JPMorgan Cautions

TradingKey - Last week, president Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday instructing the Department of Commerce to investigate whether tariffs should be imposed on copper and its derivative products—key industrial materials—in order to protect national security.

Markets widely project that tariffs will be imposed following the investigation’s conclusion.

Given that the possibility of such a tariff policy was already mentioned during Trump's first term, CME copper prices and inventory levels began to surge significantly following his election victory.

On Friday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. released a report forecasting that the global refined copper supply deficit will expand to 160,000 metric tons by 2026, while maintaining its 2026 price forecast of an average $11,000 per metric ton.

The bank further warned that the U.S. is likely to impose tariffs of at least 10% on refined copper and copper products by the end of Q3 2025, with significant risks of an escalation to 25%.

Moreover, Citigroup suggested the U.S. government will ultimately implement copper tariffs as high as 25% by Q4 2025.