BUZZ-COMMENT-Respect for the USD/ZAR cloud is being tested

Feb 26 (Reuters) - USD/ZAR continues to respect the base of its daily Ichimoku cloud, today at 18.4075, but bearish pressure is building, and a brief breach of the support point does not bode well for the dollar.

The cloud base has supported the dollar since the November bull reversal. The cloud top, currently at 18.6875, caused USD/ZAR problems in early February and continues to provide resistance. A rise in the cloud from Monday, moving into a sideways bias from February 26 to March 31, makes range-bound calls more likely.

The run into the weekend could prove pivotal for USD/ZAR and despite a strong February 17 moving average bull signal, the risk remains skewed to the downside. A drop under the daily cloud could weaken the 100/200-day moving average crossover.

External drivers linked to U.S. tariff policy and international trade continue to call the shots for the rand, but the domestic backdrop could drag on the ZAR. Budget uncertainty, power outages and a fragile growth outlook are all leaning on the currency.

South African inflation numbers for January, released earlier in the day, came in close to the Reuters poll consensus. The core price index rose 3.5% year-on-year versus 3.6% in December and a 3.5% market call.

Headline CPI came in slightly below expectations. January producer prices are out on Thursday with a 1.0% year-on-year rise expected. Trade and budget balance numbers, also for January, are due on Friday.

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